Злой рок. Политика катастроф

305

Yi, «World’s Most Catastrophic Dam Failures».

306

Катастрофа, которая может произойти при прорыве «Трех ущелий» – а она была вполне реальна после сильных ливней в июле 2020 года, – приведет к тому, что 10 миллиардов кубометров воды устремятся вниз по течению к таким крупным торгово-промышленным и общественным центрам, как Ичан (население 4 млн), Ухань (11 млн), Нанкин (8,5 млн), Чанчжоу (4,6 млн) и Шанхай (24,3 млн), и поставит под угрозу жизнь и пропитание 350 млн человек, зальет четверть пахотных земель Китая и, вероятно, потопит примерно половину сухопутных подразделений Народно-освободительной армии. (Прим. авт.)

307

«The Three Gorges Dam in China: Forced Resettlement, Suppression of Dissent and Labor Rights Concerns», Human Rights Watch 7, no. 1 (February 1995), https://www.hrw.org/reports/1995/China1.htm.

308

David Schoenbrod, «The Lawsuit That Sank New Orleans», Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2005, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112769984088951774.html.

309

Lawrence H. Roth, «The New Orleans Levees: The Worst Engineering Catastrophe in US History – What Went Wrong and Why», семинар, место проведения: Auburn University College of Engineering, April 5, 2007, https://web.archive.org/web/20071015234208/http://eng.auburn.edu/admin/marketing/seminars/2007/lroth.html.

310

Rawle O. King, «Hurricane Katrina: Insurance Losses and National Capacities for Financing Disaster Risks», Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, January 31, 2008, table 1.

311

John Schwartz, «One Billion Dollars Later, New Orleans Is Still at Risk», New York Times, August 17, 2007; Michael Lewis, «In Nature’s Casino», New York Times Magazine, August 26, 2007.

312

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 41–45.

313

Louise K. Comfort, «Cities at Risk: Hurricane Katrina and the Drowning of New Orleans», Urban Affairs Review 41, no. 4 (March 2006), pp. 501–516.

314

Comfort, «Cities at Risk», pp. 47–54.

315

U. S. House of Representatives, A Failure of Initiative: Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina (Washington, DC: U. S. Government Printing Office, 2006), https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1209/ML12093A081.pdf.

316

Neil L. Frank and S. A. Husain, «The Deadliest Tropical Cyclone in History?» Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 6 (June 1971), p. 441.

317

«A Brief History of the Deadliest Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal», Business Standard, May 19, 2020, https://tbsnews.net/environment/brief-history-deadliest-cyclones-bay-bengal-83323.

318

Frank and Husain, «Deadliest Tropical Cyclone», p. 443.

319

Jack Anderson, «Many Pakistan Flood Victims Died Needlessly», Lowell Sun, January 31, 1971, https://www.newspapers.com/clip/2956402/many-pakistan-flood-victims-died/.

320

N. D. Kondratieff and W. F. Stolper, «The Long Waves in Economic Life», Review of Economics and Statistics 17, no. 6 (November 1935), pp. 105–115.

321

Paul Schmelzing, «Eight Centuries of Global Real Rates, RG, and the ‘Suprasecular Decline,’ 1311–2018» (PhD diss., Harvard University), August 2019. Краткое изложение: Paul Schmelzing, «Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, RG, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018», Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 845 (January 2020), https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuriesofglobal-real-interest-ratesrgand-the-suprasecular-decline-1311–2018.

322

George R. Havens, «The Conclusion of Voltaire’s Poème sur le désastre de Lisbonne», Modern Language Notes 56 (June 1941), pp. 422–426. См. также: Peter Gay, The Enlightenment: An Interpretation, vol. I (New York: Norton, 1995), pp. 51f.

323

Пер. А. Кочеткова. Вольтер. Избранные произведения. М., 1947.

324

Voltaire, «The Lisbon Earthquake», in Candide, or Optimism, trans. Tobias Smollett (London: Penguin, 2005). [На русском языке: Вольтер. Избранные произведения / Пер. А. Кочеткова. М., 1947. С. 347–349.]

325

John T. Scott, «Pride and Providence: Religion in Rousseau’s Lettre à Voltaire sur la providence», Rousseau and l’Infâme: Religion, Toleration, and Fanaticism in the Age of Enlightenment, ed. Ourida Mostefai and John T. Scott (Amsterdam and New York: Editions Rodopi, 2009), pp. 116–132.

326

Catriona Seth, «Why Is there an Earthquake in Candide?» Oxford University, https://bookshelf.mml.ox.ac.uk/2017/03/29/whyisthereanearthquakeincandide/.

327

Maria Teodora et al., «The French Enlightenment Network», Journal of Modern History 88 (September 2016), pp. 495–534.

328

Julie Danskin, «The ‘Hotbed of Genius’: Edinburgh’s Literati and the Community of the Scottish Enlightenment», eSharp, special issue 7: Real and Imagined Communities (2013), pp. 1-16.

329

Адам Смит. Теория нравственных чувств / Пер. П. Бибикова. Подгот. текста, коммент. А. Грязнова. М., 1997.

330

Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Los Angeles: Enhanced Media Publishing, 2016 [1759]), p. 157. [На русском языке: Адам Смит. Теория нравственных чувств / Пер. П. Бибикова. Подгот. текста, коммент. А. Грязнова. М., Республика, 1997. С. 141.]

331

Там же.

332

Там же.

333

Адам Смит. Указ. соч.

334

Claud Cockburn, In Time of Trouble: An Autobiography (London: Hart-Davis, 1957), p. 125.

335

В конце концов заголовок появился в 1979 году в издании Not the Times – пародийной версии газеты, выходившей на протяжении целого года, пока длилась забастовка, устроенная сотрудниками Times. (Прим. авт.)

336

«‘Times’ Not Amused by Parody Issues», New York, July 30, 1979, p. 8, https://books.google.com/books?id=bNECAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA8&lpg=PA8&dq=colgrave+%22not+the+times%22&source=bl&ots=HPc47oSltE&sig=bMp0qCbaXE62rqAa6RHmmdQvbso&hl=en &sa=X&ei=RVCUdnUF8X20gW_lID4Dw&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAA#v=onepage &q=colgrave%20%22not%20the%20times%22&f=false.

337

Geoffrey West, Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies (New York: Penguin Press, 2017).

338

Steven H. Strogatz, «Exploring Complex Networks», Nature 410 (March 8, 2001), pp. 268–276.

339

Duncan J. Watts, «Networks, Dynamics, and the Small-World Phenomenon», American Journal of Sociology 105, no. 2 (1999), p. 515.

340

Geoffrey West, «Can There Be a Quantitative Theory for the History of Life and Society?» Cliodynamics 2, no. 1 (2011), pp. 211f.

341

Guido Caldarelli and Michele Catanzaro, Networks: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 23f.

342

Joseph Henrich, The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Dri ving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016), p. 5.

343

R. I. M. Dunbar, «Coevolution of Neocortical Size, Group Size and Language in Humans», Behavioral and Brain Sciences 16, no. 4 (1993), pp. 681–735.

344

Nicholas A. Christakis and James H. Fowler, Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives (New York: Little, Brown, (2009), p. 239.

345

Michael Tomasello et al., «Two Key Steps in the Evolution of Human Cooperation: The Interdependence Hypothesis», Current Anthropology 53, no. 6 (2012), pp. 673–692.

346

Douglas S. Massey, «A Brief History of Human Society: The Origin and Role of Emotion in Social Life», American Sociological Review 67 (2002), pp. 3–6.

347

J. R. McNeill and William McNeill, The Human Web: A Bird’s-Eye View of Human History (New York and London: W. W. Norton, 2003).

348

Niall Ferguson, The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook♦ (New York: Penguin Press, 2018).

349

Shin-Kap Han, «The Other Ride of Paul Revere: The Brokerage Role in the Making of the American Revolution», Mobilization: An International Quarterly 14, no. 2 (2009), pp. 143–162.

350

Duncan J. Watts, Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (London: Vintage, 2004), p. 134.

351

Albert-László Barabási, Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life (New York: Basic Books, 2014), p. 29.

352

Miller McPherson, Lynn Smith-Lovin, and James M. Cook, «Birds of a Feather: Homophily in Social Networks», Annual Review of Sociology 27 (2001), p. 419.

353

Mark Granovetter, «The Strength of Weak Ties», American Journal of Sociology 78, no. 6 (1973), pp. 1360–1380.

354

Mark Granovetter, «The Strength of Weak Ties: A Network Theory Revisited», Sociological Theory 1 (1983), p. 202.

355

Andreas Tutic and Harald Wiese, «Reconstructing Granovetter’s Network Theory», Social Networks 43 (2015), pp. 136–148.

356

Duncan J. Watts and Steven H. Strogatz, «Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-World’ Networks», Nature 393 (June 4, 1998), pp. 400–442.

357

Watts, «Networks, Dynamics, and the Small-World Phenomenon», p. 522.

358

Виральность – способность информации распространяться самостоятельно (аналог – вирусность).

359

Nicholas A. Christakis and James H. Fowler, Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives (New York: Little, Brown, (2009), p. 97.

360

Eugenia Roldán Vera and Thomas Schupp, «Network Analysis in Comparative Social Sciences», Comparative Education 43, no. 3, pp. 418f.

361

Matthew O. Jackson, «Networks in the Understanding of Economic Behaviors», Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, no. 4 (2014), 3-22, p. 8.

362

Alison L. Hill et al., «Emotions as Infectious Diseases in a Large Social Network: The SISa Model», Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2010), pp. 1–9.

363

Peter Dolton, «Identifying Social Network Effects», Economic Report 93, supp. S1 (2017), pp. 1-15.

364

Christakis and Fowler, Connected, p. 22.

365

Charles Kadushin, Understanding Social Networks: Theories, Concepts, and Findings (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012), pp. 209f.

366

Karine Nahon and Jeff Hemsley, Going Viral (Cambridge, UK: Polity, 2013)

367

Damon Centola and Michael Macy, «Complex Contagions and the Weakness of Long Ties», American Journal of Sociology 113, no. 3 (2007), pp. 702–734.

368

Watts, Six Degrees, p. 249.

369

Sherwin Rosen, «The Economics of Superstars», American Economic Review 71, no. 5 (1981), pp. 845–858.

370

Для безмасштабной сети характерно распределение по степенному закону, в том смысле что относительная вероятность очень высокой степени и очень низкой степени выше, чем в тех случаях, когда связи образуются случайным образом. В безмасштабной сети не существует типичного узла, однако «масштаб» различий между узлами представляется везде одинаковым. Иначе говоря, для безмасштабного мира характерна фрактальная геометрическая структура: село – это большая семья; город – большое село; а королевство – большой город. (Прим. авт.)

371

Albert-László Barabási and Réka Albert, «Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks», Science 286, no. 5439 (1999), pp. 509–512.

372

Barabási, Linked, pp. 33–34, 66, 68f., 204.

373

Barabási, Linked, p. 221.

374

Barabási, Linked, pp. 103, 221. Важная критика главного утверждения Барабаши и Альберт, согласно которому безмасштабные сети – это частое явление: Anna D. Broido and Aaron Clauset, «Scale-Free Networks Are Rare», January 9, 2018, arXiv:1801.03400v1.

375

Vittoria Colizza, Alain Barrat, Marc Barthélemy, and Alessandro Vespignani, «The Role of the Airline Transportation Network in the Prediction and Predictability of Global Epidemics», PNAS 103, no. 7 (2006), pp. 2015–2020.

376

Dolton, «Identifying Social Network Effects».

377

Romualdo Pastor-Satorras and Alessandro Vespignani, «Immunization of Complex Networks», Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, February 1, 2008.

378

Strogatz, «Exploring Complex Networks».

379

Niall Ferguson, «Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos», Foreign Affairs 89, no. 2 (March/April 2010), pp. 18–32.

380

Barabási, Linked, pp. 113–118.

381

Barabási, Linked, 135.

382

Dorothy H. Crawford, Deadly Companions: How Microbes Shaped Our History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007).

383

Angus Deaton, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015).

384

Edward Jenner, An Inquiry into the Causes and Effects of the Variolae Vaccinae (1798), цит. по: Daniel J. Sargent, «Strategy and Biosecurity: An Applied History Perspective», доклад подготовлен для организации: Hoover History Working Group, 18.06.2020.

385

Crawford, Deadly Companions, pp. 13f.

386

M. B. A. Oldstone, Viruses, Plagues, and History: Past, Present and Future (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).

387

M. B. A. Oldstone and J. C. De La Torre, «Viral Diseases of the Next Century», Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association 105 (1994), pp. 62–68.

388

A. Moya et al., «The Population Genetics and Evolutionary Epidemiology of RNA Viruses», Nature Reviews 2 (2004), pp. 279–288; P. Simmonds,

«Virus Evolution», Microbiology Today (May 2009), pp. 96–99; R. Ehrenberg, «Enter the Viros: As Evidence of the Influence of Viruses Escalates, Appreciation of These Master Manipulators Grows», Science News 176, no. 8 (October 10, 2009), pp. 22–25; G. Hamilton, «Viruses: The Unsung Heroes of Evolution», New Scientist 2671 (August 2008), pp. 38–41, http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19926711.600-viruses-the-unsung-heroesofevolution.html.

389

Crawford, Deadly Companions, pp. 25, 43.

390

M. Achtman et al., «Yersinia pestis, the Cause of Plague, Is a Recently Emerged Clone of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis», PNAS 96, no. 24 (1999), pp. 14043-14048. См. также: G. Morelli et al., «Yersinia pestis Genome Sequencing Identifies Patterns of Global Phylogenetic Diversity», Nature Genetics 42, no. 12 (2010), pp. 1140–1143.

391

Crawford, Deadly Companions, pp. 96f. См. также: Richard E. Lenski, «Evolution of the Plague Bacillus», Nature 334 (August 1988), pp. 473f.; Stewart T. Cole and Carmen Buchrieser, «A Plague o’ Both Your Hosts», Nature 413 (2001), pp. 467ff.; Thomas V. Inglesby et al., «Plague as a Biological Weapon», Journal of the American Medical Association 283, no. 17 (2000), pp. 2281–2290.

392

R. Rosqvist, Mikael Skurnik, and Hans Wolf-Watz, «Increased Virulence of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis by Two Independent Mutations», Nature 334 (August 1988), pp. 522–525.

393

S. Ayyadurai et al., «Body Lice, Yersinia pestis Orientalis, and Black Death», Emerging Infectious Diseases 16, no. 5 (2010), pp. 892–893.

394

Stephen M. Kaciv, Eric J. Frehm, and Alan S. Segal, «Case Studies in Cholera: Lessons in Medical History and Science», Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine 72 (1999), pp. 393–408.

395

Crawford, Deadly Companions, pp. 96f., 109.

396

World Health Organization, «Yellow Fever Fact Sheet No. 100» (May 2013), http:.//www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs100/en/

397

Alice F. Weissfeld, «Infectious Diseases and Famous People Who Succumbed to Them», Clinical Microbiology Newsletter 31, no. 22 (2009), pp. 169–172.

398

Nathan D. Wolfe et al., «Origins of Major Human Infectious Diseases», Nature 447, no. 7142 (2007), pp. 279-83, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK114494/; Robin A. Weiss, «The Leeuwenhoek Lecture, 2001: Animal Origins of Human Infectious Diseases», Philosophical Tran sactions of the Royal Society Biological Sciences 356 (2001), pp. 957–977.

399

David Quammen, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic (New York: W. W. Norton, 2012).

400

L. Dethlefsen et al., «An Ecological and Evolutionary Perspective on Human-Microbe Mutualism and Disease», Nature 449 (October 2007), pp. 811–818.

401

Фукидид. История / Пер. и примеч. Г. Стратановского. Отв. ред. Я. Боровский. Л., 1981.

402

Там же.

403

Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War, trans. Richard Crawley (Project Gutenberg, 2009), book I, chap. 1. [На русском языке: Фукидид. История / Пер. и примеч. Г. Стратановского. Отв. ред. Я. Боровский. Л., Наука, 1981. Кн. I. С. 14.]

404

Фукидид. Указ. соч.

405

Там же.

406

Там же.

407

Фукидид. Указ. соч.

408

Kyle Harper, The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017).

409

Насколько можно судить, у автора эта фраза соотнесена с эпидемией 165–192 годов, но сам Гиббон в данном случае говорит о другой эпидемии, которая поразила Римскую империю в 250–265 годах.

410

Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 1.

411

Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (New York: Harper & Bros., 1836), vol. I, chap. 10, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 1 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. X.]

412

Guido Alfani and Tommy E. Murphy, «Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World», Journal of Economic History 77, no. 1 (March 2017), pp. 316f.

413

R. P. Duncan-Jones, «The Impact of the Antonine Plague», Journal of Roman Archaeology 9 (1996), pp. 108-36, https://doi:10.1017/S1047759400016524; R. P. Duncan-Jones, «The Antonine Plague Revisited», Arctos 52 (2018), pp. 41–72.

414

Rodney Stark, «Epidemics, Networks, and the Rise of Christianity», Semeia 56 (1992), pp. 159-75.

415

Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 4.

416

Там же.

417

Gibbon, The Decline and Fall, vol. IV, chap. 43, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4. / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]

418

Там же.

419

Gibbon, The Decline and Fall. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]

420

Там же.

421

Lee Mordechai et al., «The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential Pandemic?» PNAS 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.

422

Elizabeth Kolbert, «Pandemics and the Shape of Human History», New Yorker, March 30, 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/pandemics-and-the-shapeofhuman-history.

423

Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 4.

424

Gibbon, Decline and Fall, vol. IV, chap. 43, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]

425

Matthew O. Jackson, Brian W. Rogers, and Yves Zenou, «Connections in the Modern World: Network-Based Insights», VoxEU & CEPR, March 6, 2015, https://voxeu.org/article/network-based-insights-economists.

426

J. Theilmann and Frances Cate, «A Plague of Plagues: The Problem of Plague Diagnosis in Medieval England», Journal of Interdisciplinary History 37, no. 3 (2007), pp. 371–393.

427

M. Drancourt et al., «Yersinia pestis Orientalis in Remains of Ancient Plague Patients», Emerging Infectious Diseases 13, no. 2 (2007), pp. 332–333; S. Haensch et al., «Distinct Clones of Yersinia pestis Caused the Black Death», PLOS Pathogens 6, no. 10 (2010), pp. 1–8.