Злой рок. Политика катастроф

205

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).

206

Peter Taylor, «Catastrophes and Insurance», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 181. См. также: Didier Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-Organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, 2nd ed. (Berlin: Springer, 2004).

207

Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen (New York: Penguin Random House, 2002).

208

Brian Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», American Scientist 90 (January – February 2002), pp. 10–15.

209

Céline Cunen, Nils Lid Hjort, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, «Statistical Sightings of Better Angels: Analysing the Distribution of Battle-Deaths in Interstate Conflict Over Time», Journal of Peace Research 57, no. 2 (2020), pp. 221–234.

210

Edward D. Lee et al., «A Scaling Theory of Armed Conflict Avalanches», April 29, 2020, arXiv:2004.14311v1.

211

Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09, 36 (2009), http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.

212

Edward Lorenz, «Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow», Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20 (1963), pp. 130, 141.

213

Edward Lorenz, «Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?» presented before the American Association for the Advancement of Science, December 29, 1972.

214

Simon Kennedy and Peter Coy, «Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting Recessions?» Bloomberg Businessweek, March 27, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20190328/economists-are-actually-terribleatforecasting-recessions.

215

Christopher G. Langton, «Computation at the Edge of Chaos: Phase Transitions and Emergent Computation», Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 42, nos. 1–3 (1990), pp. 12–37.

216

После этого – значит, по причине этого (лат.).

217

Taleb, Black Swan, pp. 62–84.

218

Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (New York: Knopf, 2006).

219

Paul Krugman, «Disaster and Denial», New York Times, December 13, 2009.

220

Melanie Mitchell, Complexity: A Guided Tour (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009).

221

M. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992).

222

См.: John H. Holland, Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (New York: Perseus, 1995).

223

См., напр.: Stuart Kauffman, At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 5.

224

Holland, Hidden Order, p. 5. См. также: John H. Holland, Emergence: From Chaos to Order (Reading, MA: Perseus, 1998).

225

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics», Edge, September 15, 2008.

226

Niall Ferguson, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World (New York: Penguin Press, 2008).

227

Yacov Haimes, «Systems-Based Risk Analysis», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 161f.

228

D. C. Krakauer, «The Star Gazer and the Flesh Eater: Elements of a Theory of Metahistory», Cliodynamics 2. no. 1 (2011), pp. 82-105; Peter J. Richerson, «Human Cooperation Is a Complex Problem with Many Possible Solutions: Perhaps All of Them Are True!» Cliodynamics, 4, no. 1 (2013), pp. 139–152.

229

W. R. Thompson, «Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium», Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco (2008).

230

«The World Should Think Better About Catastrophic and Existential Risks», Economist, June 25, 2020, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/06/25/the-world-should-think-better-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risks.

231

Минимумы названы в честь британских астрономов Эдварда Уолтера Маундера и его жены Энни, основоположников изучения солнечных пятен, и немца Германа Густава Шпёрера, который первым обнаружил низкую солнечную активность после 1618 года. (Прим. авт.)

232

John A. Eddy, «The Maunder Minimum», Science 192, no. 4245 (June 1976), pp. 1189–1202, https://doi:10.1126/science.192.4245.1189.

233

William Napier, «Hazards from Comets and Asteroids», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 230–235.

234

Michael M. Rampino, «Super-Volcanism and Other Geophysical Processes of Catastrophic Import», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 214f.

235

Joseph R. McConnell et al., «Extreme Climate After Massive Eruption of Alaska’s Okmok Volcano in 43 BCE and Effects on the Late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom», PNAS 117, no. 27 (2020), pp. 15443–15449, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002722117.

236

Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo et al., «The Avellino 3780yrB.P. Catastrophe as a Worst-Case Scenario for a Future Eruption at Vesuvius», PNAS 103, no. 12 (March 21, 2006), pp. 4366–4370, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508697103.

237

Письма Плиния Младшего. Кн. I-Х / Изд. подгот. М. Сергеенко, А. Доватур. М., 1982. Кн. VI. Письмо 20.

238

«Two Letters Written by Pliny the Younger about the Eruption of Vesuvius», Pompeii Tours, http://www.pompeii.org.uk/s.php/tour-the-two-letters-writtenbypliny-the-elder-about-the-eruptionofvesuviusin79adhistoryofpompeiien238s.htm. [На русском языке: Письма Плиния Младшего. Кн. I – Х / Изд. подгот. М. Сергеенко, А. Доватур. М., Наука, 1982. С. 108.]

239

Catherine Connors, «In the Land of the Giants: Greek and Roman Discourses on Vesuvius and the Phlegraean Fields», Illinois Classical Studies 40, no. 1 (2015), pp. 121–137. См. также: Andrew Wallace-Hadrill, «Pompeii – Portents of Disaster», BBC History, дата последнего обновления: 29.03.2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/romans/pompeii_portents_01.shtml.

240

Либурника – легкое судно.

241

Письма Плиния Младшего. Указ. соч. Кн. VI. Письмо 16.

242

«Two Letters Written by Pliny the Younger about the Eruption of Vesuvius.» [На русском языке: Письма Плиния Младшего. Кн. I – Х / Изд. подгот. М. Сергеенко, А. Доватур. М., Наука, 1982. С. 105.]

243

Письма Плиния Младшего. Указ соч. Кн. VI. Письмо 20.

244

«Two Letters Written by Pliny the Younger about the Eruption of Vesuvius.» [На русском языке: Письма Плиния Младшего: Кн. I – Х / Изд. подгот. М. Сергеенко, А. Доватур. М., Наука, 1982. С. 109.]

245

Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo et al., «Herculaneum Victims of Vesuvius in AD 79», Nature 410, no. 6830 (April 12, 2001), pp. 769–770, https://doi.org/10.1038/35071167.

246

Boris Behncke, «The Eruption of 1631», Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Tech, January 14, 1996, http://www.geo.mtu.edu/volcanoes/boris/mirror/mirrored_html/VESUVIO_1631.html.

247

Catherine Edwards, «Italy Puzzles Over How to Save 700,000 People from Wrath of Vesuvius», The Local, October 13, 2016, https://www.thelocal.it/20161013/evacuation-plan-for-vesuvius-eruption-naples-campania-willbereadybyoctober.

248

F. Lavigne et al., «Source of the Great A. D. 1257 Mystery Eruption Unveiled, Samalas Volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia», PNAS 110, no. 42 (2013), pp. 16742–16747, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307520110.

249

Aatish Bhatia, «The Sound So Loud That It Circled the Earth Four Times», Nautilus, September 29, 2014, http://nautil.us/blog/the-soundsoloud-thatitcircled-the-earth-four-times.

250

Tom Simkin and Richard S. Fiske, Krakatau 1883: The Volcanic Eruption and Its Effects (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institute Press, 1983).

251

I. Yokoyama, «A Geophysical Interpretation of the 1883 Krakatau Eruption.» Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 9, no. 4 (March 1981), p. 359, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(81)900445. См. также: Simon Winchester, Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded (London: Penguin, 2004); Benjamin Reilly, Disaster and Human History: Case Studies in Nature, Society and Catastrophe (Jefferson, NC, and London: McFarland, 2009), pp. 44f.

252

Reilly, Disaster and Human History, pp. 44f.

253

K. L. Verosub and J. Lippman, «Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru’s Huaynaputina Volcano», Eos 89, no. 15 (2008), pp. 141–148.

254

William S. Atwell, «Volcanism and Short-Term Climatic Change in East Asian and World History, c.1200–1699», Journal of World History 12, no. 1 (2001), pp. 29–98.

255

T. De Castella, «The Eruption That Changed Iceland Forever», BBC News, April 16, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8624791.stm; J. Grattan et al., «Volcanic Air Pollution and Mortality in France 1783–1784», C. R. Geoscience 337, no. 7 (2005), pp. 641–651.

256

B. de Jong Boers, «Mount Tambora in 1815: A Volcanic Eruption in Indonesia and Its Aftermath», Indonesia 60 (1995), pp. 37–60.

257

Raymond S. Bradley, «The Explosive Volcanic Eruption Signal in Northern Hemisphere Continental Temperature Records», Climatic Change 12 (1988), pp. 221–243, http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradley1988.pdf.

258

Mary Bagley, «Krakatoa Volcano: Facts About 1883 Eruption», LiveScience, September 15, 2017, https://www.livescience.com/28186-krakatoa.html; Stephen Self and Michael R. Rampino, «The 1883 Eruption of Krakatau», Nature 294 (December 24, 1981), p. 699, https://doi.org/10.1038/294699a0.

259

Alexander Koch et al., «Earth System Impacts of the European Arrival and Great Dying in the Americas After 1492», Quaternary Science Reviews 207 (2019), pp. 13–36. Язвительная критика: Alberto Borettia, «The European Colonization of the Americas as an Explanation of the Little Ice Age», Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports 29 (February 2020).

260

John A. Matthews and Keith R. Briffa, «The ‘Little Ice Age’: Re-Evaluation of an Evolving Concept», Geografiska Annaler 87 (2005), pp. 17–36.

261

M. Kelly and Cormac Ó Gráda, «The Economic Impact of the Little Ice Age», UCD School of Economics Working Paper Series, WP10/14 (2010), pp. 1-20. См.: Tom de Castella, «Frost Fair: When an Elephant Walked on the Frozen River Thames», BBC News Magazine, January 28, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25862141.

262

Atwell, «Volcanism», pp. 53, 69; Verosub and Lippman, «Global Impacts.»

263

G. Neale, «How an Icelandic Volcano Helped Spark the French Revolution», Guardian, April 15, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/15/iceland-volcano-weather-french-revolution/print.

264

De Jong Boers, «Mount Tambora in 1815».

265

Моментная магнитуда, или магнитуда по сейсмическому моменту, – предпочитаемая в настоящее время мера измерения силы («величины») землетрясений. Именно в ней ее показатели, насколько это возможно, приведены в данной книге. Она отличается от более старой и привычной шкалы Рихтера, для градуировки которой использовались локальные магнитуды. Сейсмический момент пропорционален подвижке по разрыву (смещению вдоль разлома), умноженной на площадь смещающейся поверхности разлома. Это более подходящая мера для очень крупных землетрясений. (Прим. авт.)

266

Официальное название – Землетрясение в Тихом океане, оказавшее влияние на регион Тохоку.

267

Robert Coontz, «Comparing Earthquakes, Explained», Science, March 15, 2011, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2011/03/comparing-earthquakes-explained.

268

U. S. Geological Survey, «Preferred Magnitudes of Selected Significant Earthquakes», June 24, 2013, https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/sign_eqs.pdf.

269

Eduard G. Reinhardt et al., «The Tsunami of 13 December A. D. 115 and the Destruction of Herod the Great’s Harbor at Caesarea Maritima, Israel», Geology 34, no. 12 (December 2006), pp. 1061–1064, https://doi.org/10.1130/G22780A.1.

270

Mohamed Reda Sbeinati, Ryad Darawcheh, and Mikhail Mouty, «The Historical Earthquakes of Syria: An Analysis of Large and Moderate Earthquakes from 1365 B. C. to 1900 A. D.», Annals of Geophy sics 48 (June 2005), p. 355, https://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/908/1/01Sbeinati.pdf.

271

H. Serdar Akyuz et al., «Historical Earthquake Activity of the Northern Part of the Dead Sea Fault Zone, Southern Turkey», Tectonophysics 426, nos. 3–4 (November 2006), p. 281.

272

Mischa Meier, «Natural Disasters in the Chronographia of John Malalas: Reflections on Their Function-An Initial Sketch», Medieval History Journal 10, nos. 1–2 (October 2006), p. 242, https://doi.org/10.1177/097194580701000209.

273

Lee Mordechai, «Antioch in the Sixth Century: Resilience or Vulnerability?» in Environment and Society in the Long Late Antiquity, ed. Adam Izdebski and Michael Mulryan (Leiden: Koninklijke Brill, 2018), pp. 25–41.

274

G. Magri and D. Molin, Il terremoto del dicembre 1456 nell’Appeninno centro-meridionale (Rome: Energia Nucleare ed Energie Alternative (ENEA), 1983), pp. 1-180.

275

Umberto Fracassi and Gianluca Valensise, «Frosolone Earthquake of 1456», Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources, August 4, 2006, p. 20. См. также: C. Meletti et al., «Il Terremoto del 1456 e la sua interpretazione nel quadro sismotettonico dell’Appennino Meridionale», in Il Terremoto del 1456. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Storia e Scienze della Terra, ed. B. Figliuolo (1998), pp. 71-108; Gruppo di Lavoro CPTI, «Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04)», Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (2004), http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI; Enzo Boschi et al., «Catalogue of emphasis Italian Earthquakes from 461 B. C. to 1997», Annals of Geophysics 43, no. 4 (2000), pp. 609–868, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag3668.

276

C. Nunziata and M. R. Costanzo, «Ground Shaking Scenario at the Historical Center of Napoli (Southern Italy) for the 1456 and 1688 Earthquakes», Pure and Applied Geophysics 177 (January 2020), pp. 3175–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02426y.

277

A. Amoruso et al., «Spatial Reaction Between the 1908 Messina Straits Earthquake Slip and Recent Earthquake Distribution», Geophysical Research Letters 33, no. 17 (September 2006), p. 4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027227.

278

Giuseppe Restifo, «Local Administrative Sources on Population Movements After the Messina Earthquake of 1908», Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) Annals of Geophysics 38, nos. 5–6 (November – December 1995), pp. 559–566, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag4058; Heather Campbell, «Messina Earthquake and Tsunami of 1908», Encyclopaedia Britannica, January 29, 2020, https://www.britannica.com/event/Messina-earthquake-and-tsunamiof1908.

279

Emanuela Guidoboni, «Premessa a terremoti e storia», Quaderni Storici 20, no. 60 (3) (December 1985), pp. 653–664, https://www.jstor.org/stable/43777325.

280

Giacomo Parrinello, «Post-Disaster Migrations and Returns in Sicily: The 1908 Messina Earthquake and the 1968 Belice Valley Earthquake», Global Environment 9 (2012), pp. 26–49, http://www.environmentandsociety.org/sites/default/files/key_docs/ge9_parrinello.pdf.

281

A. S. Pereira, «The Opportunity of a Disaster: The Economic Impact of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake», Journal of Economic History 69, no. 2 (June 2009), pp. 466–499.

282

Pereira, «Opportunity of a Disaster», pp. 487f.

283

Gregory Clancey, «The Meiji Earthquake: Nature, Nation, and the Ambiguities of Catastrophe», Modern Asian Studies 40, no. 4 (2006), p. 920.

284

Gregory Clancey, «Japanese Seismicity and the Limits of Prediction», Journal of Asian Studies 71, no. 2 (May 2012), p. 335.

285

Christopher Sholz, «What Ever Happened to Earthquake Prediction?» Geotimes 17 (1997), pp. 16–19.

286

Ishibashi Katsuhiko, «Why Worry? Japan ’s Nuclear Plans at Growing Risk from Quake Damage», International Herald Tribune, August 11, 2007, reposted on Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://www.japanfocus.org/-Ishibashi-Katsuhiko/2495.

287

Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018), pp. 76ff., 92, 96f.

288

Peter Symonds, «The Asian Tsunami: Why There Were No Warnings», World Socialist Web Site, January 3, 2005, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2005/01/warn-j03.html.

289

«Scientist Who Warned of Tsunamis Finally Heard», NBC News, November 1, 2005, https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna6813771. См. также: Natalie Muller, «Tsunami Warning: Why Prediction Is so Hard», Australian Geographic, May 11, 2012, https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2012/05/tsunami-warning-why-predictionissohard/.

290

Becky Oskin, «Two Years Later: Lessons from Japan’s Tohoku Earthquake», LiveScience, March 10, 2013, https://www.livescience.com/27776-tohoku-two-years-later-geology.html.

291

Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 81–82.

292

Ari M. Beser, «One Man’s Harrowing Story of Surviving the Japan Tsunami», National Geographic, March 23, 2016, https://blog.nationalgeographic.org/2016/03/23/exclusive-one-mans-harrowing-storyofsurviving-the-japan-tsunami/.

293

Clancey, «Japanese Seismicity», p. 333.

294

Harrison Salisbury, The Great Black Dragon Fire (New York: Little, Brown, 1989).

295

Rev. Peter Pernin and Stephen J. Pyne, The Great Peshtigo Fire: An Eyewitness Account (Madison: Wisconsin Historical Society Press, 1999), Kindle ed., loc. 273–275. Самый крупный природный пожар, случившийся в 2020 году в Калифорнии, «Августовский комплексный пожар» («August Complex»), сжег чуть больше миллиона акров (более 4046 кв. км) и не достиг величины пожара в Пештиго.

296

Erin Blakemore, «Why America’s Deadliest Wildfire Is Largely Forgotten Today», History, August 4, 2017 (updated September 1, 2018), https://www.history.com/news/why-americas-deadliest-wildfireislargely-forgotten-today.

297

Pernin and Pyne, Great Peshtigo Fire, loc. 273–275.

298

Pernin and Pyne, Great Peshtigo Fire, 413–414.

299

Pernin and Pyne, Great Peshtigo Fire, loc. 437–447. См. также: Tom Hultquist, «The Great Midwest Fire of 1871», https://www.weather.gov/grb/peshtigofire2.

300

A. Korotayev et al., «A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia», Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), pp. 276–303.

301

Пер. А. Суркова. Из кн.: Мао Цзэ-дун. Восемнадцать стихотворений / Под редакцией Н. Федоренко и Л. Эйдлина. М., 1957.

302

Thayer Watkins, «The Catastrophic Dam Failures in China in August 1975», San José State University Department of Economics, n.d., https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/aug1975.htm.

303

Yi Si, «The World’s Most Catastrophic Dam Failures: The August 1975 Collapse of the Banqiao and Shimantan Dams», in The River Dragon Has Come!, ed. Dai Qing (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1998).

304

Eric Fish, «The Forgotten Legacy of the Banqiao Dam Collapse», Economic Observer, February 8, 2013, http://www.eeo.com.cn/ens/2013/0208/240078.shtml; Justin Higginbottom, «230,000 Died in a Dam Collapse That China Kept Secret for Years», Ozy, February 17, 2019, https://www.ozy.com/true-and-stories/230000-diedinadam-collapse-that-china-kept-secret-for-years/91699/; Kenneth Pletcher and Gloria Lotha, «Typhoon Nina – Banqiao Dam Failure», Encyclopaedia Britannica (2014), https://www.britannica.com/event/Typhoon-Nina-Banqiao-dam-failure. См. также: N. H. Ru and Y. G. Niu, Embankment Dam – Incidents and Safety of Large Dams (Beijing: Water Power Press, 2001) (на китайском языке).