Gambit

“Here’s the latest: I just heard from Stonewall; the Israelis will be attacking tomorrow. I guess for that matter, their planes will be taking off in about ten hours. I already let ‘Axe’ know” – referring to Eric Axelsson, the secretary of defense – “that the Fifth Fleet should be expecting some company very soon. I didn’t give him any specifics – didn’t really have any at the time as this was before Jackson’s latest call – but the Pentagon’s been put on notice. Axe and the chairman will be at the White House so they’ll receive the latest information at the same time everyone else will.”

“Jackson’s sure this is the real thing, right? I mean, State’s going to come unglued that their ambassador hasn’t been clued in on any of this.”

“Well, we’ve warned them about the deteriorating conditions with our relationship with the Israelis. This is exactly why I sent Stonewall over there – he’s essentially my personal representative to Tamir. I had a feeling something was coming down and they weren’t comfortable enough with State to let them know. I didn’t think it would amount to their attacking Iran, but I had a feeling something was in the works.”

“Well, let’s go,” Jones said as their limo arrived at the White House. “Don’t be surprised if both State and the chief of staff hit you up on failing to pick up on Iran’s nuke program.”

“I’m expecting that. The real issue here is the Israeli’s pending attack; I won’t let them diverge from that.”

“You do that, and I’ll be there as well to help you out should one of them try and get you off track. After all, we weren’t the only ones who underestimated the Iranians: MI6, the KGB… hell every intelligence network not named Mossad missed this.”

“Yeah, but we’re supposed to be better than all the rest, right?” Carmichael responded.

“Keep telling yourself that,” Jones replied. “Remember, the other….”

“I know, I know… the other guy wants to hide his activities as much as we want to figure them out.”

As they walked into the White House, Carmichael noticed that they were the last ones to show up – everyone else’s limousines were already in the lot.

“Off to a great start already – looks like we’re the last one’s here.”

“Yeah, I noticed that, too. Well, might as well get the show started,” Jones added as they approached the Situation Room.

Sure enough, Carmichael noticed: everyone was here, that is, everyone except President Barre… and the front podium was empty. Jim walked right to the podium and Jones took his seat at the middle of the conference table. No sooner had he gotten his briefing outline pulled up on his iPad than the president walked in and took his seat.

“Good morning,” President Barre said to those seated around the table. “I understand we have something pressing so I won’t take up any of your time Jim; you can proceed whenever you’re ready.”

“Thank you, Mr. President,” Carmichael replied. “I received a call from Colonel Tom Jackson first thing this morning. Tom’s an assistant of mine that is acting as a liaison for me with General Tamir Pardo, the head of Mossad. It seems that the Israelis have had a very high level asset in Tehran. This morning, they managed to smuggle him out of Iran. We all know him, or at least know of him, as it’s none other than Dr. Ali Bagheri, the deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the man who led their negotiation team in Bern.”

“Ali Bagheri is Mossad’s source on all of this?” asked Secretary of State Andrea Johnson.

“That’s correct. Jackson called me from Baku just as they were flying back to Tel Aviv. The team set off a car bomb in Bagheri’s driveway to cover their tracks – and completely took out both the house and the garage – there is literally nothing left. In fact, NORAD actually picked up the detonation so the explosion had to be massive. Obviously, the Israelis want Tehran to believe Bagheri is completely out of the picture. However, what is more important is that Jackson also noticed that the Israeli Air Force has prepositioned four of their advanced EW aircraft at Baku. I called Axe as soon as I got off the phone with Jackson and let him know that things could get real hot for our folks in the Persian Gulf.”

“I let Admiral Fischer know of the possibility of any action and I’ve ordered the Teddy Roosevelt to make best possible speed to the gulf,” interjected Axelsson.

“Good, because we’re going to need the firepower,” Carmichael replied. “Jackson went straight to General Pardo when he arrived back in Tel Aviv. With their asset now cleanly out of Iran, the Israelis will be attacking at dawn tomorrow morning. In fact, their planes will be taking off in roughly ten hours or so.”

“What?!?” Tom Fleming, the White House chief of staff, and Secretary of State Andrea Johnson blurted out in unison.

“You’ve got to be kidding?” added in Pamela McDowell, President Barre’s national security advisor.

“I wish I was,” Carmichael replied. “You see, the Iranians are only a couple months away from fielding a nuclear bomb – if even that long. Jackson managed to discuss Iran’s nuclear ambitions with Dr. Bagheri for several hours; they are much farther along than we thought possible. The Israelis wanted to get their asset out before they attacked – and they just accomplished this so the attack will commence as soon as practical.”

“How did you miss this?” McDowell demanded.

The “you” of McDowell’s question did not escape Carmichael, nor Jones.

“Damn near everyone missed this, except the Israelis. We’d been reporting that the Iranians were probably farther along than we expected, though we did not think they were this close,” Jones immediately replied.

“You also told us that the economic sanctions would work!” Secretary of State Johnson interjected.

“No, we said that the sanctions would work as part of an overall strategy. However, you have instead allowed the sanctions to be our entire strategy – and we told you, this would not work,” Jones emphasized. “Our diplomatic strategy, aside from the sanctions, has been pretty weak. We’ve always warned that the Iranians were going to pursue the bomb regardless of any sanctions. A bigger stick was needed rather than simply relying on sanctions.”

“And just how do we know that your assistant, Colonel Thomas Jackson, is reliable? The Israelis haven’t said ‘boo’ to our ambassador in Tel Aviv. It would seem to me that if they haven’t bothered to tell our ambassador, and go through our official channels, they are simply trying to embarrass us.”

“Andrea, they haven’t told our ambassador as you wouldn’t believe them even if they did,” Jones shot back.

“Ambassador Richards is a very trusted supporter of the president, and has been so for years,” added Fleming. “If the Israelis are really serious about this planned attack, there is no reason they couldn’t have notified him.”

“Tom, even if they had told Ambassador Richards, not only would you not have believed him, this administration is so tuned into economic sanctions that we probably would not have even listened. As for Jackson – he’s as reliable and trust-worthy as they come,” Carmichael interjected. “He’s been a member of the Fifth Group, Special Forces, for many years – three of those years he led the CIF team for the group – and has his doctorate in Persian studies. He’s been monitoring the Iranians for several years. Finally, he was a part of the mission to grab Dr. Bagheri and get him out of Iran.”

“Wait a minute! We had US troops on the ground in Iran?!?” Pam McDowell demanded.

“No, we had one Special Forces officer accompany an Israeli Sayeret Matkal team on the ground in Iran.”

“Who authorized this? Eric, did you authorize this?” Tom Fleming demanded of the secretary of defense.

“Jackson has been on temporary assignment to the CIA for a little while, so, no, I did not know about it.”

“Colonel Jackson is one of very few men we have suitable for just such a mission,” interjected General Stan Kaufman, chairman of the Joint Chiefs. “Jackson has served with the Fifth Group for more than fifteen years and has served several tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Between his military training and his academics, he’s as qualified as anyone for a mission of this type.”

“So then, Felix,” Fleming asked turning to the DNI, and totally ignoring the general’s comments, “did you authorize this?”

“Actually, Tom, I’m the one who gave Stonewall his orders – and I gave him a wide degree of latitude to pursue his objective,” Carmichael answered before his boss had a chance to say anything. “However, the issue here is not who may have exceeded their orders or to pronounce the eulogy of a failed policy. Rather, the Israelis will be launching their raid in something like ten hours from now. We need to be ready.”

“Eric, what’s the disposition of the Navy?” President Barre asked.

“I put the Fifth Fleet on notice as soon as I received Jim’s call. We have the Washington currently in the gulf and the Stennis in the Arabian Sea on the way to relieve them. The Roosevelt is in the Med on its way to the Suez Canal. They can be in striking range in just a few days. In addition, we have an Amphibious Ready Group in the gulf as well, centered around the San Antonio. Unfortunately, we’ve allowed our forces at Al Udeid to dwindle quite a bit. All we have there are a couple squadrons of drones and an F-15 squadron. For the moment, the Eagles will be on standby to assist the Washington in the gulf and essentially guard their rear flank as the Washington Battle Group heads towards Doha.”

“Can the Washington take care of herself? I don’t want to hand the Iranians any PR victories by having them put a hole in one of our carriers,” President Barre asked.

“Sir, once the missiles start flying, it’s a whole new ball game. However, that being said, she can take care of herself, even in the narrow confines of the gulf. And with two carriers, and a third on the way, we’ll be able to assure the world that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open.”

“Okay, get word out to the Fifth Fleet.”

“I’ll do that, sir, but what are the rules of engagement?”

“Each officer has the authority to do what is necessary for the safety of his command. The Iranians are going to be thoroughly pissed and I’m sure they will strike out at the fleet. If we need to take out the entire Iranian Navy and Air Force, then that is what we need to do.”

“What about offensive operations, sir?” Axelsson followed up. “Can I tell Admiral Fischer that he can conduct any operations inside Iran? The gulf is exceptionally narrow for defensive operations. I’d like to let Fischer and Admiral Ramsey, the commanding officer of the Fifth Fleet, conduct operations inside Iran if they even get a hint of possible action against them. If they have to wait until a threat extends beyond Iran’s territorial waters, their options will be seriously restricted.”

“Mr. President,” Andrea Johnson interrupted, “if we invade Iran’s air space, we will have lost all deniability on the world stage, and it will look as though we were actually behind this attack. I’m sorry but we cannot allow the Navy to attack Iran. This is an Israeli operation and we should have no part of it. If the Navy stays by Doha they should be out of range of Iran’s capabilities and be perfectly safe.”

“Mr. President,” Axelsson interjected, “we do not know the extent, or range, of Iran’s capabilities. Andrea’s notion that the fleet should be safe at Doha could be right – but we missed on their nuclear ambitions. I wouldn’t want to bet the safety of our fleet on our intel on the exact ranges of their defense capabilities in the gulf. The fleet needs to be able to defend itself. Furthermore, if they launch on our ships – and at this point, I am assuming that they will – we should have every right to defend ourselves – and that should include taking out any threat before it materializes. Remember, we did not start this.”

“Tom,” President Barre said, turning to his chief of staff, “set up a meeting with the Speaker and the rest of the Congressional leaders for seven tonight. Jim, you said the Israelis would be taking off in what, about ten hours?”

“That’s right; it’s now about twelve thirty in the afternoon here so that makes it about 7:30 p.m. in Israel. Colonel Jackson thought they’d be launching around six in the morning, local time.”

“Okay, six tomorrow morning over there would be 11:00 p.m. our time. By seven tonight – that’ll be just four hours before they launch – we should know if anything else has developed. At that point, I’ll let the Speaker, the Senate Majority Leader and the rest of the Congressional leaders know that Israel will be launching their attack and that we expect hostilities with Iran in the gulf and that if that arises as expected, the Fifth Fleet will have authorization to take out any naval and air threat they deem necessary – including operations within Iranian territory. However, actual offensive operations will not be authorized at this point. Is that understood Eric?”

“Yes, sir.”

“What about the Strait of Hormuz?” General Kaufman quickly added. “Tehran has long boasted that they would close the strait should something like this happen.”

“The same goes for the strait. It is a vital interest to this country – and we will defend it as such. Let Admirals Fischer and Ramsey know that both the fleet and the strait are to be defended, and that includes operations within Iranian territory, though again, no offensive operations.”

“Very good, sir. I’ll let them know.”

VIII

USS George Washington

“CAG, come on in,” announced Captain Noel Roberts, CO of the George Washington, to his commander, Air Group.

“Sir, what do we have?” replied the CAG.

“We have just been advised by the Pentagon that the Israelis will be taking out several of Iran’s nuclear sites. They’ll actually be launching in about eight hours; that’s about 6:00 a.m. their time in Jerusalem.”

“Nice of them to give us some warning,” the CAG remarked acidly. “So, where does that place us? Did the Stennis get the same warning?”

“Are you familiar with the term ‘Like shooting fish in a barrel’? Well, we’re the fish and this lake we’re in is the barrel. We’re too far north to make a run for the strait to try and get out of here. We’ll head to a little pocket between Doha and Abu Dhabi. Russia supposedly has supplied the Iranians with a pretty good supply of Sunburn missiles. However, by the time everything kicks off, we should be out of their range – if they haven’t modified those things. If they have, well we’ll have your Hornets out there to knock down anything that flies as well as anything that even looks like it might be ready to fire at us. The Stennis received the same warning as we did; they’ll remain in the Arabian Sea. Their Hornets will need to pair up with buddy stores to help us out should we need it. In addition, the Roosevelt is on its way as well and should be transiting the Suez Canal as we speak and, at full speed, could be here in a little more than three days.”

“I’ll keep two Hawkeyes up and double the CAP,” referring to the Hornet’s combat air patrol over the fleet. “I don’t want to do too much to tip off our friends for tomorrow morning but I want to get as much up and still not raise too much suspicion. The Israelis will be launching at six, figure it will take them three hours to get to their targets, so we’ll start launching everything we have about eight thirty, or two and a half hours after they’ve launched.”

“Once they’re airborne, I want them on station north and east of us. Any plane that gets past the Iranian coast line needs to be warned to back off immediately. I don’t want any unidentified aircraft within 150 miles of us so if they don’t back off, shoot’em down. If by chance they have some Sunburn missiles from the Russians, we’ll need to keep them at least one hundred miles from the fleet; I don’t want to take the chance that they might have modified these and extended their range.”

“Do we have any other assets in the region?” asked the CAG.

“Not as much as we did just a few years ago. There’s a squadron of Eagles at Al Udeid as well as a couple squadrons of Wraiths and Reapers. The Eagles will be guarding our back door as we head south. The Wraiths and Reapers will be airborne over several of Iran’s nuclear sites so when the Israelis hit them, we’ll know about it right away. A few years ago, the Iranians actually hacked into one of the Wraiths and brought it down so if they happen to see one snooping around, it shouldn’t raise too much suspicion.”

The following morning, twenty-five F-15I Eagles and seventy-five F-16I Vipers took off for Iran. Each of the F-15’s were loaded with two GBU-28 five thousand pound bombs while the F-16’s each carried two GBU-27 two thousand pound bombs. In addition, each of the fighters carried their own complement of air-to-air missiles: the Eagles each carried four missiles while the Vipers carried two each. Jim Carmichael had been right in that the Israelis had not been idle on the diplomatic front. The pilots were going to need to refuel in flight and both Turkey and Azerbaijan had granted the Israelis permission to base their tankers and other support craft out of their respective air fields; in Turkey, the Diyarbakir airfield practically sat astride the route the Israelis were flying so the tankers would fly out of here. In addition, the Azerbaijanis had granted use of the Baku airbase as Jackson had noticed, and the Israelis would base their G-550 EW “Eitam” craft out of here. The Eitams would meet up in flight as the strike fighters made the turn to enter Iranian airspace.

The Israeli G-550 EW, that is, electronic warfare, aircraft first made a name for themselves when the Israelis took out the Syrian nuclear plant at Dayr az-Zawr. The Israelis managed to crash Syria’s entire air defense system allowing its fighters unfettered access to their target. It seems that some enterprising graduate student at MIT had caught on to the notion that a significant part of any radar system is to receive data. He figured that if a way could be designed to capture the signal frequency of the radar unit and, instead of simply jamming that frequency, actually hijack the frequency and send data back along the frequency – that is any data – you could literally do anything you wanted to the enemy’s radar and, potentially, their entire air defense network. In the case of the Israeli raid on the Syrian nuclear facility at Dayr az-Zawr, the Israelis had actually shut down Syria’s air defense network – for the entire country!

As soon as the raiders met up with the G-550’s they split up into three main groups: ten of the F-16’s and one of the G-550’s headed to the heavy water nuclear reactor at Arak and ten more Vipers and an additional Eitam headed towards the Esfahan Nuclear Research Center. The remaining two Eitams accompanied the fifty-five F-16’s and the twenty-five F-15’s that headed towards the Natanz and Qom/Fordow uranium enrichment facilities. One of the Eitams, thirty of the Vipers and fifteen of the Eagles ultimately veered off towards Qom/Fordow leaving the remaining Eitam, twenty-five of the Vipers and the ten Eagles for Natanz. It was a brilliantly coordinated attack: At both Natanz and Qom, for over twenty minutes, every thirty seconds another two tons of high explosive projectiles penetrated the earth. In each case, the Eagles went in first with their heavier bunker buster GBU-28’s softening up the targets for the lighter GBU-27’s carried by the Vipers. At both Qom and Natanz, the Eitams earned their pay as the Iranian SAM search radars were non-existent. However, the Iranian Air Force had obviously been alerted. The Eagles, having been the first ones in were now free of their heavy ordnance, reverted to their original purpose – an air superiority fighter. In the forty year history of the F-15, not a single plane had been lost in aerial combat – and this day would pose no exception. Every one of the Iranian defenders that rose to challenge the raiders went down in flames. As in the Dayr az-Zawr raid, the destruction was complete – by the time the raiders had left, the Iranian nuclear program had received a blow the likes of which no one in Iran had dared contemplate: its nuclear program was in tatters and its Air Force had been ravaged.

* * *

Ever since the 2008 US presidential election, the Iranians had been boasting of their ability to close the vital Strait of Hormuz should they be attacked by either the Israelis or the United States. The subject of the Iranian nuclear program had gained more and more headlines in the US elections with each presidential candidate promising that they would never allow a nuclear Iran. Said Jalili knew that Iran needed a response and literally everyone expected a response in the strait – after all, the strait was the doorway to the Persian Gulf – their gulf! However, America presented Jalili with a huge problem: the Great Satan was the most powerful empire the world had ever known. They based their Fifth Fleet in Qatar, and while no ships were permanently assigned to the Fifth Fleet, the US maintained a constant presence in the gulf with either an Amphibious Ready Group, a Carrier Battle Group – usually the case – or both. Even if the Israelis were to attack on their own, Iran would still have to contend with that American fleet. He knew that any attempt to close the gulf would be a gamble. Iran had a stockpile of Russian made “Sunburn” anti-ship missiles, but they had never been used in combat and he’d only seen them tested on a stationary target. In addition, once they fired their first salvo, the Americans would have at least a couple airborne warning aircraft up – probably an Air Force AWACS or, more likely, a Navy Hawkeye, or maybe even some of their new Predators, Wraiths, or Reapers, each of the latter three could also be armed – watching for any activity that could even be mistaken for preparations for a missile launch. Once detected, attack aircraft from Al Udeid or a Navy carrier would be on them in seconds leaving little chance to launch a second salvo. Obviously, then, their first shot would possibly be the only one they were going to get, so it needed to be a good one.