“So it would seem. I’ll be starting with the borders in the north. The Astara crossing is already the only crossing from Azerbaijan so we’ll double the guards there. We’ll also beef up the Bazargan crossing at the Turkish border. This is really going to hurt things in the north but I don’t expect it to last all that long. We won’t be closing the border but it is definitely going to take a lot longer to cross it. The Iraqi border is pretty well covered; we’ve had that managed pretty well since the Americans invaded back in “03.”
“What about the coast? Israel has a number of submarines and it wouldn’t take much for a submarine to surface in the middle of the night and have a few Israeli commandos come ashore to smuggle someone out.”
“That is the hardest part. We only have 1,700 kilometers of coast line to guard,” Rafsanjani added rather sarcastically. “However, the Bushehr reactor is right on the coast. I’ll have the navy saturate the surrounding area with patrol boats so no one could get through. We also need to check and see if any ‘surprise’ inspections show up here in the next few days or if anyone is making an unscheduled trip to Bushehr.”
“What do you think about Afghanistan and the eastern borders? I can’t see the Israelis going this far out: we don’t have any nuclear facilities in that direction and it’s a long way to travel if they want to pursue this route.”
“Yeah, I agree with you there. It just doesn’t make sense. I’ll alert the border guards but aside from that, I don’t see it out there.”
“What about actually looking for the traitor? Any ideas there? From what I understand, it seems to be some pretty specific information that has been leaked. There can’t be all that many people with that kind of knowledge.”
“Yeah, I’ve thought about that. We can’t put everyone under a microscope – that was done when each of these people was hired in the first place. We’d essentially be looking for something that doesn’t exist. No, the source of this leak is going to be someone beyond reproach. And, if we start investigating the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council or the head of our Atomic Agency Commission, I’m liable to end up in front of a firing squad. However, I think we should look at each of these respective offices, and others, and see if there are any junior staff members who are planning on taking any unscheduled trips, with or without their superiors.”
“You realize the trouble with this idea, though, is that irregular travel is the norm for these people – and their staffs. What you’ll need to look for is irregularities, within the irregularities: is there a staff member who hardly ever travels, but is taking a trip now? What about phone calls and email correspondence? Have there been any phone numbers called in the past few days that had not been contacted on a regular basis? Were there any staff members who had family all of a sudden ‘vacationing’ abroad?”
“You know, Jalili suggested letting you take over our original project. However, you seem to have a pretty good grasp on how to conduct this search. Why don’t you take over the search – use my name whenever you need to – and I’ll continue with Cyrus?”
“That’s fine. I don’t think this will last all that long, either, and then I can get back to work around here. Besides, I personally think our original assignment is a little more important and your talents would be better used on Cyrus than trying to find this traitor who is probably on his way out of the country as we speak.”
“Good. Since we both expect this to be a relatively short lived assignment, why don’t you swing by my office every afternoon before you leave for the day and let me know how things are going?”
“Will do; see you tomorrow.” And with that, Zarin dismissed himself.
* * *
“Good morning, Amir,” Colonel Rafsanjani greeted his driver. Amir had been driving for Rafsanjani for a couple years now.
“Good morning, sir. Where to this morning, the office or out to Bidganeh?”
“Bidganeh, Amir. Major Zarin is working on a small project for me and I’ll need to see him later this afternoon so let’s just head to the base.”
The drive to the base took about half an hour longer than to where Rafsanjani had his office at the Ministry of Intelligence in Tehran so he came prepared for the ride: Rafsanjani already had his new iPad open and began trying to get caught up on several items he had hoped to get done yesterday. Jalili’s call and new assignment had taken up his entire day, leaving him a day behind on his latest project.
Amir interrupted his concentration as they approached the halfway point to the base. “Colonel? Excuse me, sir. Major Zarin is on the phone for you. He said something about an explosion over at the Botanical Gardens.”
“The Botanical Gardens? There’s nothing over there; who wants to blow up a bunch of trees? Give me the phone. Major, what’s going on? Amir mentioned something about an explosion over in the Botanical Gardens. There’s nothing over there.”
“Sir, Dr. Ali Bagheri lives over by the gardens. Would the Israelis be targeting him?”
“Amir, turn around and let’s head over to there. Farrok, get me Bagheri’s address. We are on our way over there now but it’ll take us forty-five minutes to even get in the general area – the traffic is awful. Send me a text with Bagheri’s address as soon as you can.”
“Will do, sir; I’ll get it to you right away.”
“Here you are, sir. Bagheri currently lives in a resort area of Bashgah-e Savarkri-e, which is actually a part of the National Botanical Gardens.”
Rafsanjani could tell that the explosion had come from the resort area of the gardens as they passed through the east entrance. The remnant wisps of a heavy smoke plume rising from that area, as Farrok had indicated, clearly indicated a massive fire had raged here. The local police already had established a cordon about a quarter mile from Bagheri’s residence, or what remained of it. However, being a colonel in the Quds Force has its privileges. One of which is ready access to catastrophic scenes such as that posed by the horrific scene of what once was Ali Bagheri’s residence and surrounding yard – there was nothing left of the house but a huge crater and scattered and charred debris of what once was the residence of the Islamic Republic’s Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. The incident commander had already relayed that two bodies had been discovered though identifying who they were would require contacting a few dentists. There simply wasn’t enough left to visually identify the bodies. Rafsanjani inquired about any other corpses and the commander indicated that they had only found the two but, given the extent of the devastation – and the still smoldering fire amongst the vegetation – there was no telling if they would ever know just how many might have been at the home. Clearly, Dr. Bagheri had been assassinated, Rafsanjani thought, as no one had heard from him as yet and at this hour of the morning, he should have either been at his office or have been in contact with someone from his security detail. He did not need the commander’s expertise to tell him that this was not an ordinary explosion: the size of the crater, and its location immediately adjacent to the house, clearly implied something other than an accident. The list of suspects would not be a long one. It would take time to determine just who had assassinated the deputy secretary, though he had a good idea who would be at the top of the list.
“Major, I want you to start your search with the deputy secretary’s office,” Rafsanjani said over his cell phone.
“Surely you don’t suspect the deputy secretary?” replied Major Zarin.
“No, the deputy secretary is dead; there is no way anyone could have survived that blast, and not even Netanyahu would be cynical enough to kill his source. However, this is the only unusual or irregular thing to occur that is really out of the ordinary. We need to track down any loose end that might come out of Bagheri’s office, no matter how remote the possibility could be – you said it yourself just yesterday: did anyone in the office make any calls to a totally different number, even if they turned out to be a wrong number? What about email correspondence? Are there any emails that might look like SPAM or junk emails? Is anyone in the office planning a family vacation out of the country – I want you to track everything down no matter how small it might seem. I’m sure the Israelis are involved in this in some manner; the only question is how. I’m going straight to the Ministry to see Secretary Jalili. I’d expect to be out to the base later today and will talk to you then.”
Rafsanjani quickly realized that there was no point in his hanging around what used to be Ali Bagheri’s residence. They had professionals already assigned to dig through the rubble and search for any remaining bodies. Rafsanjani did not need to take part in that. He told Amir to head immediately to Said Jalili’ s office at the Supreme National Security Council’s office downtown. He knew Jalili would demand an update from him even though he had absolutely no jurisdiction in the assassination. However, he already had Major Zarin chasing down any leads from Bagheri’s office personnel to see if his assassination could be connected in any way with Netanyahu’s speech. He really didn’t see how, but he knew that is exactly the situation that would arise in their search for the traitor, whoever it might be.
Rafsanjani found Jalili completely shocked by Bagheri’s assassination – and furious – Bagheri was his deputy. “Colonel,” Jalili began, “just how bad is it?”
“The devastation could not be more incredible. They used enough explosives to bring down this building.”
“Any chance of survivors?”
“None; there’s no way anyone could have survived that blast. The local fire officials found two bodies so far and I think they were lucky to find them. It’s too soon to begin looking at reconstructing this but we’ll begin that tomorrow if we can, certainly by the day after, and that will give us a better idea of what actually happened. Do we know if there had been any threats towards Bagheri? I mean, taking him out serves absolutely no purpose.”
“Ali Bagheri was our leading negotiator with the West regarding our nuclear ambitions. To think the Europeans would be involved in this? – totally ridiculous; certainly not the Russians or the Chinese. The Americans right now are simply out of the picture on the International front. That leaves the Israelis, who incidentally are not a part of the negotiations. I can easily see them trying to derail the negotiations to try and prove a point but even for them, this would be an extremely dangerous game.”
“Okay, well, I’ll get back over there tomorrow and see if we can begin to get to work reconstructing this thing to see just how powerful this bomb was, where it came from, and all that. I’ll keep you posted as things develop.”
“Do that. For the next few days, this is your first priority. Turn over everything else to Major Zarin.”
“I’ve already done that; see you tomorrow.”
VI
Several thousand miles away, Jim Carmichael received a phone call at home from his signals people. “Sir, we are receiving word of a detonation just outside of Tehran. From the looks of it, this happened within the hour.”
“Do we have any details on this as yet?”
“Sir, it’s conventional, but it’s huge. Brigadier General John Anderson out at Cheyenne Mountain called in the initial report. If they picked it up, it had to be big. Looks like someone took out an entire city block on the outskirts of Tehran. Preliminary reports are saying that the Israelis just took out Ali Bagheri.”
“What?!? He was leading their negotiating team in Bern. Why would they do that? What the hell are they thinking? Okay… Stonewall Jackson is supposed to be in Tel Aviv. Try and raise him. It’s what, about 5:00 a.m. over there? Keep trying until you get ahold of him. I’ll be in early in the morning, unless something else develops; keep me posted.”
“Yes, sir.”
* * *
Jackson had not been with the Agency long enough to have the clout to call up the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and since he had seriously exceeded his orders, he figured he’d be better off starting with his own superior – and friend – James Carmichael. He had known Jim Carmichael for more than fifteen years now, dating to September of 2001. Jim had lead a CIA team – the Northern Alliance Liaison Team – that entered Afghanistan very soon after the assassination of General Ahmad Shah Massoud, known in Afghanistan as the Lion of Panjshir. Massoud commanded the Northern Alliance and had been seeking the CIA’s assistance in fighting the Taliban for a number of years. The combination of his assassination on September 9th, 2001, and the attacks in New York and Washington D.C., two days later, ironically, cemented the deal for this assistance. Indeed, the afternoon of September 11th, the director of the CIA ordered the establishment of a team to support the Northern Alliance with all means necessary to defeat the Taliban and root out and kill Osama Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda cohorts. The Clandestine Services Division jumped into high gear: Word quickly went out to the Army’s Special Operations Command looking for anyone from the Special Forces’ Fifth Group who would be willing to join the team – they’d still be active duty, just temporarily attached to the Agency. Thomas Jackson, then a bright, young and eager captain in the special operations community, had signed up as soon as word went out for volunteers. Two weeks after the World Trade Center collapsed, Carmichael, Jackson and the rest of the team was in Afghanistan and working in the Panjshir valley.
Stonewall knew his little trek into Tehran had stretched things more than a little but he also knew that Jim was not one to dwell on technicalities when one obtained the desired results – and Jackson knew he had just delivered. Now, he needed to get those results to those who could actually act upon them.
“Stonewall, where have you been? We’ve been trying to get ahold of you for the past several hours. Do you have any idea as to what is going on over there? It seems the Israelis have just assassinated Ali Bagheri, the deputy secretary of their Supreme National Security Council.”
“Jim, back up a bit. Ali Bagheri is out of the picture as far as Iran is concerned – because he just defected to the Israelis. I’ve been on the mission to pick him up in Tehran – I’ll tell you more about that later. The bombing you’ve seen was designed to make the Iranians think that Bagheri is dead; in fact, he’s sitting right here with me now.”
“Wait a minute; you were in Tehran?”
“I’ll explain later. The real issue is just how far along the Iranians are to achieving a nuclear bomb. Jim, they’ll have the bomb in the next couple of months. If I was a betting man, now that the Israelis have their source out of the country, they’ll be attacking any time; they may already have the strike force warmed up. They already have the EW planes forward deployed to Baku. Jim, the Israelis are attacking – it’s just a question of how soon.”
This was a lot of information all at once, even for someone as experienced as Jim Carmichael.
“Are you sure of this? This is way off of what we’ve predicted. And the Israelis; Tamir hasn’t even dropped a clue to me.”
“Sir, I’ve spent the last several hours talking with Bagheri. His information all checks out. There is no way any of this is disinformation; not from him. We grabbed his laptops, desk top computer and cell phone to verify everything but, sir, everything checks out. You’ll need to check with the Pentagon to see what assets we have in the region. As soon as we touch down in Tel Aviv the Israelis are going to be free to attack as they feel they have nothing left to lose.”
“Well, the extent of what we can or will do is beyond our call, but I’ll be getting this information up to the DNI, the national security advisor, the secdef, and the president as soon as we hang up. We have some resources in the area – we’ve kept a carrier in the gulf since ’03 and I know we have something in the Med, I’m just not sure what all we have there. Give me a call after you’ve landed and have had a chance to talk with Pardo. I know the Israelis have not been sitting on the sidelines diplomatically should they decide to attack on their own. No one in the region wants the mad mullahs of Iran to have the Bomb and all are content to let Israel do the heavy lifting. I know they have had some discussions with the Turks and it sounds like you know more than the rest of us about their relationship with the Azerbaijanis. Aside from that, I don’t know of anyone who would actually assist them with an attack but most in the region will certainly look the other way.”
“Okay, will do Jim. It’s about a two hour flight so I’ll give you a call later this afternoon or early evening my time; that should be right about noon on the east coast.”
“Okay, I’ll be expecting your call. Let me know what Pardo is thinking and just how soon the Israelis might go.”
“Sir, if I read this right, they’re already locked and loaded.”
“Yeah, that’s my thinking too. Let me know what you find out. I’ll set up the meetings with the White House, the national security counselor and the rest of the national security team for later this morning; if you can call back before, say five this afternoon your time, I’d have a little time to go over everything before I brief them.”
“Okay, I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.”
* * *
“Ben, I know you probably don’t know the answer to this question, for obvious reasons, but just how soon do you really think the IDF will launch their attack?”
“Well, we should be landing in around two hours. They’ll want a little time to debrief Bagheri, say about three hours, and that puts it right around 6:00 p.m. our time. Given the complexity of the attack, I would assume that the Air Force would prefer to launch and refuel in daylight – that’s just a guess, not being an airedale myself. As such, I would expect them to launch about twelve hours later, or six in the morning… but that’s just a guess.”
“Okay, that’s kind of what I suspected; no reason to wait now.”
As soon as the team’s plane landed, Dani and Ben escorted Jackson in to see General Pardo. “So, Stonewall, what did you think of your little trip?” Pardo asked him.
“I have to thank you for the opportunity to join the party; it was quite the trip. I must say, it was not quite what I expected when you offered it to me.”
“Well, I couldn’t exactly fill you in on all of the details but I’m glad you were able to go. I realize you don’t know the disposition of your fleet, but could you relay a message for us? You see, now that we have Bagheri, all of our assets are safe; we can attack at will. We’ve already positioned several of our tankers and EW aircraft along the route; in fact, you may have seen some of them in Baku. We aren’t looking for any assistance from you with the strike; we believe we can handle that on our own. In retrospect, our strike on the Syrian nuclear site of Dayr az-Zawr actually served as a nice practice run. However, we would really like to know if we could at least count on US support in some manner. We know you have one carrier, the Roosevelt, I believe, in the Mediterranean and another in the Persian Gulf, the George Washington, with a third, the John C Stennis on the way to relieve the Washington. We are not sure what other ships might be accompanying these carriers but we are not asking for help with your navy fighters. Rather, we’d like to know if we could count on your navy’s support should any of our pilots have to ditch either in the gulf or the Mediterranean. Also, if in the unfortunate circumstance, any of our pilots were to be shot down, would your navy be available to go in and rescue them? I know that is asking a great deal but it would be a nice gesture if the United States government could do this.”
Left unsaid was the simple fact that, in all likelihood, the Iranians would lash out at the American fleet in the gulf and try to hit one of their vaunted carriers with the new Sunburn missiles Russia had provided them. The Sunburn is a radar-guided anti-ship missile, capable of being fired from the air, land or sea, making it an extremely versatile – and dangerous – weapon. The Russian version of the Sunburn had a range of one hundred miles – no one knew if the Iranians had modified this – carried a powerful 750 pound warhead, and flew very fast at Mach 3—at that speed, it could travel the hundred miles in less than three minutes! Any anti-missile defenses the navy had would have a very limited time in which to respond. The French made Exocet missile, by comparison, which the Argentinians used in the Falklands War back in the 80’s, only carried a 350 pound warhead, and flew at less than half the speed of the Sunburn. However, the Argentines still managed to sink two British destroyers with the Exocet. Clearly, the Sunburn posed a very clear threat to any vessels in the gulf – and an American carrier posed a very tempting target.
“Well, sir, it would seem that you know more about our fleet’s disposition than I do, but I will most definitely pass this on. Actually, if you’d have a secure phone, I’d like to call my boss right away and fill him in on everything.”
Pardo handed Jackson the phone; he was not too surprised to hear that the phone was already ringing.
“Tamir, is that you?” asked Jim Carmichael, having General Pardo’s number in his speed dial.
“No, sir, it’s me, Stonewall. Jim, how soon can we get the Roosevelt through the Suez Canal and into the Arabian Sea and the Stennis to the gulf? Tamir has shared their operational plans with me and it seems that all assets are in place – and like I mentioned earlier, their EW aircraft are already forward deployed. I can’t get into a lot of detail for obvious reasons but Tamir told me to tell you to remember Dayr az-Zawr in Syria. Jim, the Israelis are ready to rock; they’ll be airborne before first light. Tamir isn’t asking for any assistance in the attack – he believes they can handle that themselves – but, ostensibly, he would like to know if he could count on any CSAR” – Combat Search and Rescue – “support from the carriers both in the gulf and the Med if any pilots are shot down during the raid. Plus, the Washington needs to be ready for any retaliation from Iran – and they will retaliate.”
“This is for real, right? I mean, this isn’t a hypothetical thing, is it?”
“No, sir; this is the real thing. They’ll be launching in about twelve hours or so. They’re ready to rock.”
“Okay, this is what I need. I’ll be briefing the president and the rest of the national security team in half an hour. The vice president, though, is out of town at the moment. Tell Tamir ‘thanks for the heads up’ on this one. Oh,… and Stonewall, the next time you decide to join a raiding party in a hostile country, at least let me know what you’re up to; you don’t need to necessarily ask permission, but it would be nice to tell your next of kin that you at least died in the line of duty.”
“Okay, will do sir.”
“Well, Tamir, I guess we wait and see,” said Jackson, turning to General Pardo.
VII
Washington, D. C.
This was not Jim Carmichael’s first visit to the White House; over the past few years, he had made several visits here and had given several briefings as well. However, this one was different. The current administration had based their entire Iranian policy on their preconceived notion that economic sanctions would completely solve the nuclear issue. As the chairman of the CIA’s Intelligence Directorate, Carmichael knew otherwise – and had repeatedly said as much; it was the politicians who didn’t want to listen, or really believe, what was really happening. He had given his boss, Felix Jones, the director of national intelligence, a heads up on this morning’s meeting – essentially a condensed Reader’s Digest version – though he had not fully briefed him as yet on all of the details. He knew he was going to get some push-back – especially from State and the White House – on their, read “his”, failure to really determine just how far along the Iranians were on their nuclear ambitions but all that was a mute-point at this stage of the game.
Jim rode in the DNI’s limo on the way to the White House and briefly updated Jones on the latest developments from Stonewall.