All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain’s Political Class

Copyright

William Collins

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WilliamCollinsBooks.com

This eBook first published in Great Britain by William Collins in 2016

Copyright © Tim Shipman 2016

Tim Shipman asserts the moral right to be identified as the author of this work

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Cover illustration by Morten Morland/Spectator

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Source ISBN: 9780008215156

Ebook Edition © October 2016 ISBN: 9780008215163

Version: 2017-05-04

Dedication

For my mother, who taught me to read,

and my father, who taught me to think.

Above all, for my wife Charlotte,

who was there and who deserved to win.

By meeting her, I did.

Contents

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Acknowledgements

Timeline

Introduction: Demons Unleashed

PART ONE: SKIRMISHES

1 ‘My Lily-Livered Colleagues …’

2 For Britain

3 Dom and Arron

4 Stronger In

5 Cornering Corbyn

6 Guerrilla Warfare

7 The Coup

8 The Deal

9 Boris and Michael

PART TWO: BATTLE IS JOINED

10 Project Fear

11 The IDS of March

12 Designation’s What You Need

13 ‘Back of the Queue’

14 The Economy, Stupid

15 Blue on Blue

16 Turning Points

17 Aunty Beeb

18 Debating Points

19 Labour Isn’t Working

20 Immigration Crisis

21 George’s Monstrous Medicine

22 Breaking Points

23 Wembley

24 The Waterloo Strategy

25 Brexit Night

PART THREE: ALL OUT WAR

26 Fallout Friday

27 Jexit

28 The Dream Team

29 Anyone But Boris

30 Brexecuted

31 Mayniacs v Leadbangers

32 Iron May-den

Conclusion: Why Leave Won

Appendix 1: Boris Johnson’s First ‘Out’ Article

Appendix 2: Boris Johnson’s ‘In’ Article

Appendix 3: David Cameron’s ‘Victory’ Speech

List of Illustrations

Picture Section

Bibliography

Notes

Index

About the Publisher

Acknowledgements

This book is based on more than one hundred interviews conducted in person and on the telephone during July and August 2016. A number of people have been immeasurably helpful but understandably do not wish to see their names in print, particularly those who work for the civil service, the new prime minister or the Labour Party, whose discretion is a living concern. They know who they are, and I’m grateful. Many of the interviews included ‘on the record’ observations, but most of the time we spoke on the understanding that I would construct a narrative of events without signalling the parentage of every fact and quote. Where I have directly quoted someone, or attributed thoughts or feelings to them, I have spoken to them, the person they were addressing, someone else in the room, or someone to whom they recounted details of the conversation. This means that I have only provided references to quotes or information from published sources and broadcast interviews. Where matters are disputed I have been clear about who is making the claims.

While it is invidious to single anyone out for special thanks, I am immensely grateful to: Iain Anderson, Adam Atashzai, Steve Baker, Arron Banks, Eddie Barnes, Jake Berry, Gabby Bertin, Nick Boles, Peter Bone, Graham Brady, Andrew Bridgen, Chris Bruni-Lowe, Conor Burns, Alistair Burt, Paul Butters, Alastair Campbell, David Campbell Bannerman, Joe Carberry, Douglas Carswell, Max Chambers, David Chaplin, Bill Clare, Ryan Coetzee, Therese Coffey, Henry Cook, Andrew Cooper, Dominic Cummings, Ruth Davidson, Henry de Zoete, Oliver Dowden, Brian Duggan, Sir Alan Duncan, Iain Duncan Smith, Matthew Elliott, Nick Faith, Lord Falconer of Thoroton, Nigel Farage, Liam Fox, Mark Fullbrook, Nusrat Ghani, Ameet Gill, John Glen, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, Damian Green, Gerry Gunster, Matthew Hancock, Daniel Hannan, Richard Harrington, Michael Heaver, Patrick Heneghan, Kate Hoey, Richard Howell, Bernard Jenkin, Alan Johnson, Boris Johnson, Hermann Kelly, Daniel Korski, Brandon Lewis, David Lidington, James McGrory, Michael McManus, Lord Mandelson of Foy in the County of Herefordshire and of Hartlepool in the County of Durham, Katie Martin, Zack Massingham, Nicky Morgan, David Mundell, Jonathan Munro, Henry Newman, Brett O’Donnell, Sir Craig Oliver, George Osborne, Rob Oxley, Mike Penning, Mats Persson, Amy Richards, Lewis Robinson, Lord Rose of Monewden, Josh Simons, Keith Simpson, Anna Soubry, Paul Stephenson, Will Straw, Lucy Thomas, Gawain Towler, Laura Trott, Nick Varley, Will Walden, Ben Wallace, Graeme Wilson and Nick Wood.

I’m also grateful to several lobby colleagues for passing on anecdotes and advice, including James Lyons, Oliver Wright, Sam Coates, James Kirkup, Beth Rigby, Fraser Nelson, Matt Chorley and Rob Hutton. Laura Kuenssberg gave me prior sight of the transcript of her television documentary Brexit: Battle for Britain, which was broadcast on 8 August 2016. Andy Taylor made several helpful suggestions on structure.

A first-time author has more debts than they can possibly repay. Victoria Hobbs, my agent at A.M. Heath, has been a friend and a professional through various abortive projects, and quickly did the deal, mid-holiday, when this one came up.

At HarperCollins, my editor Arabella Pike embraced the project from the off, and was very understanding of a recalcitrant hack’s flexible approach to deadlines. Special thanks to Robert Lacey, the best copy editor in the business, Joseph Zigmond for sorting the pictures, PR supremo Helen Ellis, and Essie Cousins who keeps the ducks in a row.

My greatest debt is to Gabriel Pogrund, without whom this project would never have been completed. When he got in touch to offer his services I envisaged a keen amanuensis, but he was so much more than that. He began by tirelessly transcribing my tapes, but was also quickly introducing me to key sources, conducting some interviews himself, and always fizzing with ideas. He has been an engine of great industry and insight, and does everything with good humour and judgement. Bénédicte Earl, George Greenwood, Hannah McGrath, Oliver Milne and Thomas Seal also provided invaluable assistance in transcribing more than half a million words of interviews. Hannah also shared some notes on one episode. Harriet Marsden gave me access to her Brexit project, including an interview with Andy Wigmore.

At the Sunday Times I’d like to thank the editor Martin Ivens, his deputy Sarah Baxter and Eleanor Mills, the magazine editor, for giving prominence to serious coverage of politics that also revels in the soap opera of SW1.

We are all products of our education, and I was fortunate to have inspirational teachers at Queen Elizabeth’s Grammar School in Horncastle, Lincolnshire. None more than my English teachers David and Heather Slater, who taught me to appreciate a good sentence (though not how to write one) while nurturing the subversive aspects of my personality that best prepared me for journalism. At Cambridge, Christopher Andrew, the late Mark Kaplanoff, Joanna Lewis, Peter Clarke and Chris Clark nurtured my love of history. I hope that as a first draft this passes muster.

Whenever there is an election, people ask me who I would like to win. I have a stock answer, which is only partially facetious: ‘My contacts – anyone who answers the phone.’ In general elections your mates can theoretically all win their seats. But the EU referendum was a civil war. I had close friends on both sides. At least one journalist with a loved one on a campaign was banished from the marital bed as a result of something they wrote. By the end of it people I like and admire were looking for work. Others whose careers had been unfairly coasting were returning in glory. The public rarely considers the human cost that accompanies a political realignment. The referendum campaign represented a career-life-or-death situation for many involved. Yet under levels of sleep deprivation that would be regarded as torture if they were inflicted on an enemy combatant, they remained professional and helpful. To everyone who answered the phone, if I could vote for you all, I would.

Most of all I would like to thank my family. My parents raised me in a house of books and have always supported me unconditionally. My sister Hannah has been a rock and a wizard webmistress, despite sharing a nuclear family with a thermonuclear ego. My wife Charlotte makes everything complete, and has endured more absences than any spouse has a right to expect during this project. Memories of our wedding mean that the day this book was first published was only the second proudest of my life.

Tim Shipman

Camogli, Todi, San Niccolo and Blackheath,

May 2017

Timeline

1973

Ted Heath takes Britain into the EEC, or ‘Common Market’

1975

British public backs EEC membership in referendum with 67 per cent voting to stay

2007

Sep – David Cameron gives a ‘cast-iron guarantee’ to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if he becomes PM

2009

Jun – Ukip demands a referendum and finishes second in the European elections with 16.5 per cent of the vote

Nov – Cameron rules out a referendum because the Lisbon Treaty has been ratified

2011

Oct – Largest post-war parliamentary rebellion on Europe as eighty-one Tories defy a three-line whip to back an in/out referendum on British membership

Dec – Cameron ‘vetoes’ EU fiscal compact treaty. Other twenty-six EU member states agree their own deal

2013

23 Jan – Cameron makes Bloomberg speech, promising to get ‘fundamental reform’ and then call an in/out referendum

5 Jul – James Wharton brings forward Private Member’s Bill to enshrine referendum pledge in law

2014

15 Mar – In article for the Sunday Telegraph, Cameron outlines seven areas where he wants reform of the EU

22 May – Ukip wins European elections with 26.6 per cent of the vote

28 Aug – Douglas Carswell defects from Tories to Ukip

27 Sep – Mark Reckless becomes second defector to Ukip

28 Nov – Cameron lays out demands for a four-year ban on in-work benefits for EU migrants. He ditches plans for an emergency brake on numbers

2015

7 May – General election. Cameron wins first Tory majority since 1992 and vows to hold a referendum before the end of 2017

8 May – Nigel Farage resigns as Ukip leader after failing to win South Thanet, but returns three days later

6 Jun – Steve Baker and David Campbell Bannerman launch Conservatives for Britain

25 Jun – Cameron outlines his broad-brush proposals at EU summit

9 Sep – Tory rebels and Labour MPs unite to defeat government over purdah rules

25 Sep – Nigel Farage announces Ukip will back Arron Banks’s group Leave.EU, originally called ‘The Know’

9 Oct – Vote Leave is officially launched with a video highlighting the £350 million-a-week cost of EU membership

12 Oct – Britain Stronger In Europe launches with Stuart Rose as chairman

9 Nov – Vote Leave activists disrupt Cameron’s speech to the CBI

10 Nov – In a letter to Donald Tusk, Cameron sets out details of the ‘four baskets’ of reforms. In a speech to Chatham House he details plans for a sovereignty lock demanded by Boris Johnson

1 Dec – Alan Johnson launches Labour In For Britain

6 Dec – Vote Leave calls Cameron ‘toxic’ after he claims he will have to campaign to leave if he is ignored by Brussels

8 Dec – MPs overturn an attempt by Labour peers to lower the voting age to sixteen

17–18 Dec – European Council discusses Cameron’s demands and agrees to push for a deal in February

2016

4 Jan – Cameron agrees that ministers will be allowed to campaign for Leave after Chris Grayling and Theresa Villiers threaten to resign

25 Jan – ‘Coup’ attempt to oust Cummings is repelled when other Vote Leave staff threaten to quit

2 Feb – Donald Tusk publishes draft agreement of a ‘new settlement’ between the EU and the UK

3 Feb – Steve Baker says the deal is ‘polishing poo’

18–19 Feb – Cameron secures a new deal in Brussels, including an emergency brake on migrant benefits. George Galloway attends a Grassroots Out rally in Westminster

20 Feb – Cameron holds historic Saturday cabinet meeting. Michael Gove leads a ‘gang of six’ cabinet ministers to back Brexit

21 Feb – Boris Johnson announces that he too will campaign to leave

22 Feb – In a statement to Parliament Cameron says, ‘I have no other agenda than what is best for our country,’ which is widely interpreted as an attack on Johnson’s motives

12 Mar – ITV does a deal with Downing Street and Ukip to secure Cameron and Farage for a debate

15 Mar – Cameron accuses Johnson of ‘literally making it up’ for suggesting the UK should have a Canada-style trade deal with the EU

18 Mar – Iain Duncan Smith resigns as work and pensions secretary over cuts to disability benefits in the budget

31 Mar – Vote Leave submits its designation document to the Electoral Commission with just twenty minutes to go

13 Apr – Electoral Commission designates Vote Leave and Britain Stronger In Europe as the two official campaigns

18 Apr – First Treasury document claims Brexit will cost families £4,300 a year

22 Apr – On a visit to London, President Barack Obama says Britain will be ‘in the back of the queue’ for a trade deal with the US

26 Apr – During a crunch meeting in George Osborne’s office, Tory chiefs on Stronger In rule out ‘blue-on-blue’ attacks on Johnson and Gove or any moves to tackle the immigration issue

5 May – In local elections Labour suffers the worst result by an opposition since 1982

6 May – Farage visits Vote Leave to discuss the ground campaign and the debates

8 May – Michael Gove tells the BBC’s Andrew Marr that Brexit Britain would be outside the European single market

9 May – Cameron warns that Brexit could lead to war in Europe

15 May – Boris Johnson says the EU is pursuing the same superstate as Hitler, using ‘different methods’

17 May – The Sun splashes on sex smears against Boris Johnson’s wife. Michael Heseltine condemns Johnson’s ‘preposterous’ claims

19 May – Eurosceptic rebels force Cameron to accept amendment to the Queen’s Speech on transatlantic trade deal

21 May – Osborne claims house prices will be 18 per cent lower in the event of Brexit

25 May – Ryan Coetzee reports to Stronger In chiefs that the economic message is not working

26 May – Immigration figures are released showing net migration to the UK rose to 333,000 in 2015

27 May – Purdah period begins, preventing the government from publishing further pro-Remain documents. Downing Street staff move to Stronger In HQ

29 May – Gove and Johnson write to Cameron accusing him of ‘corroding public trust’ with his immigration pledges. Andrew Bridgen says Cameron is ‘finished’ as PM

30 May – In the first of a series of ‘alternative government’ pledges, Vote Leave says a Brexit administration would scrap VAT on household energy bills

1 Jun – Gove and Johnson announce that a Brexit government would introduce an Australian-style points system to control immigration

2 Jun – Boris Johnson auctions a cow, describing it as a ‘beautiful milker’

3 Jun – Vote Leave vows to spend £100 million of the £350 million on the NHS instead of Brussels

5 Jun – John Major denounces Boris Johnson for a ‘squalid’, ‘deceitful’ and ‘depressing’ campaign

7 Jun – Deadline for voter registration crashes government website. Cameron calls out Leave’s ‘six lies’ in an emergency press conference

9 Jun – On a visit to Northern Ireland, Tony Blair and John Major warn that Brexit could break up the UK. Amber Rudd attacks Boris Johnson in first three-way TV debate. Andrew Cooper’s warning about falling Labour support for Remain prompts crisis meeting

12 Jun – In a Downing Street meeting, Cameron decides not to make a ‘vow’ on immigration

13 Jun – Stronger In clears the decks for ‘Labour week’, starting with a speech by Gordon Brown

14 Jun – Cameron thinks he should make an immigration pledge, but is again talked out of it. Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper also demand changes to freedom of movement

15 Jun – Cameron calls Angela Merkel but does not ask her for anything. George Osborne unveils an ‘emergency budget’ to plug a £30 billion black hole in the event of Brexit. Sixty-five Tory MPs vow to vote it down. Vote Leave unveils a ‘Brexit Queen’s Speech’. Flotillas led by Nigel Farage and Sir Bob Geldof clash on the Thames

16 Jun – Farage unveils ‘Breaking Point’ immigration poster. Labour MP Jo Cox murdered. Both campaigns suspended

19 Jun – A passionate Cameron tells Question Time audience Winston Churchill wouldn’t have ‘quit’ on Europe

21 Jun – Final ‘Great Debate’ at Wembley Arena. Boris Johnson says 23 June can be Britain’s ‘Independence Day’

23 Jun – Referendum day

24 Jun – Broadcasters declare Leave victors at 4.39 a.m. Cameron resigns at 8.15 a.m. Johnson and Gove hold a press conference and discuss plans to run a ‘Dream Team’ leadership bid. Labour MPs say they will call a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn

25 Jun – Gove calls Johnson to say he will back him. Johnson plays cricket at Althorp House. Hilary Benn phones shadow cabinet to see if they will resign

26 Jun – Eleven members of the shadow cabinet quit after Benn is fired by Corbyn. Johnson and Gove meet at Thame, Oxfordshire, to discuss Johnson’s campaign

27 Jun – Johnson’s Telegraph article on Brexit is criticised for backing both the single market and free movement

28 Jun – Labour MPs vote by 172 to forty for Jeremy Corbyn to quit. He refuses. Breakfast meeting of Johnson, Gove and aides at Lynton Crosby’s office to settle campaign tensions. Sarah Vine writes an email to Gove telling him to ‘be your stubborn best’

29 Jun – Stephen Crabb launches leadership bid. Johnson pulls out of hustings, struggles to write his launch speech, and tries and fails to recruit Andrea Leadsom. Gove decides he cannot support Johnson

30 Jun – Gove issues statement saying Johnson is not ready to be prime minister and that he will run for the leadership. Theresa May and Liam Fox also launch their campaigns. Johnson withdraws

1 Jul – Gove launches his campaign

4 Jul – Nigel Farage resigns as Ukip leader for the third time

5 Jul – May tops the first Tory leadership ballot with 165 votes, with Leadsom on sixty-six, Gove on forty-eight, Crabb on thirty-four and Fox on sixteen

6 Jul – Chilcot report on Iraq War published. Nick Boles’s text urging MPs to vote tactically against Leadsom leaks, damaging Gove

7 Jul – Leadsom supporters march on Parliament. In second ballot, May wins 199 votes, Leadsom eighty-four and Gove forty-six

9 Jul – In an interview with The Times, Leadsom implies she is better-qualified than May because she is a mother

11 Jul – Leadsom drops out of contest. May becomes Tory Party leader. Angela Eagle launches leadership challenge against Corbyn. Owen Smith says he will also run

12 Jul – After a seven-hour meeting, Labour’s NEC rules that Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper, ending the attempted coup

13 Jul – Cameron takes final cabinet and PMQs. May visits Buckingham Palace and becomes prime minister. She vows to create ‘a country that works for everyone’

19 Jul – Eagle drops out, leaving Smith to take on Corbyn

24 Sep – Corbyn re-elected Labour leader with 62 per cent of the vote

Introduction

Demons Unleashed

Not long before David Cameron moved into Downing Street he spent some time with an old friend, a man very successful in his own field but who regarded the prospect of his old mate Dave becoming the head of government with some bewilderment. ‘Isn’t it odd,’ he said, ‘that by the next time I see you, you will be the prime minister?’ The friend asked whether he was ready, whether Cameron felt up to the job. With the insouciance that became his trademark, Cameron replied, ‘How hard can it be?’

By 10 o’clock on the evening of 23 June 2016, a little over six years later, Cameron knew the answer to that question. The polls had just closed on the third major constitutional referendum of his premiership, a vote in which he had placed Britain’s membership of the European Union and his own career on the line. At that point Cameron was still expecting to win. His pollster and friend Andrew Cooper had published a poll that day putting the Remain campaign ten points ahead. Cooper’s internal tracking poll had things closer than that, but most of the twenty-five aides and allies gathered on the first floor of 10 Downing Street, eating moussaka and drinking bottled beer, expected to scrape a win. David Cameron was a winner. He had been in trouble before, but he had emerged triumphant from the 2011 referendum on electoral reform and again in the Scottish independence plebiscite in September 2014. Just 413 days earlier friend and foe alike had doubted him, but at the 2015 general election he had won the first parliamentary majority by a Conservative leader in twenty-three years.

Nevertheless, as Cameron circulated in the Terracotta Room, aides could see he was nervous – the calmest man there, but nervous nonetheless. With several of them he found time to joke ‘I’ve got both of my speeches ready!’ One for victory, one for defeat.

Nerves in the room were eased somewhat at 10 o’clock as the BBC announced that YouGov’s final poll had given Remain a 52–48 lead. Within three minutes the pound had risen on the currency markets and Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party and the man who had done most to force Cameron into calling a referendum, had all but conceded defeat.