Eonatrika. View frow above

1. Speed of light as an absolute limit. A dialogue with a civilization near Proxima Centauri (4.24 light-years away) would take at least 8.5 years for a single exchange of messages. For the Andromeda Galaxy (2.5 million light-years away), one round of communication would require about 5 million years.

2. The energy barrier. To send a signal that would be clearly detectable from a distance of 1,000 light-years would require colossal energy expenditures, far beyond the capabilities of our present-day civilization [5].

3. Expansion of space. Galaxies that lie beyond the cosmological event horizon are already receding from us so fast that any signal sent today will, in principle, never reach them: for us, they remain forever beyond the limit of causal reach [22].

According to theoretical estimates, even in a fully populated Universe the average interval between meaningful exchanges of information between civilizations would be on the order of tens of millions of years [24]. This makes any truly sustained dialog between civilizations practically impossible, since response times comparable to or exceeding the lifetimes of societies destroy the very notion of back-and-forth communication.

Our unique window in time

We live at an exceptionally fortunate moment in cosmic history:

– Past window (380,000 years after the Big Bang): The Universe was opaque – photons were constantly interacting with the primordial plasma.

– Our window (13.8 billion years after the Big Bang): The temperature is low enough for stars and planets to form, and we can observe the cosmic microwave background and distant galaxies.

– Future window (in 100+ billion years): The cosmic microwave background will fade from view, distant galaxies will slip beyond the cosmic horizon, and new stars will cease to form as the gas supply is exhausted.

“Astrophysicist Abraham Loeb notes that “the probability for a civilization to emerge precisely during this brief cosmic epoch, when conditions for life exist and the Universe can still be observed in its fullness, is extremely small” [25].

Observations from JWST indicate that the first galaxies formed earlier and were more massive or brighter than standard models had predicted. This may imply that the effective “window for life” in the Universe – the era with abundant heavy elements, active star formation and rich large-scale structure – could be narrower in time than previously assumed [26].

Eonatric conclusion: flowing time and our responsibility.

The silence of SETI takes on a new meaning in light of cosmological dynamics: it may be that we do not hear other civilizations not only because they are rare or absent, but also because the very structure of an expanding Universe, with its horizons of causal contact and immense communication delays, effectively creates a regime of cosmic isolation.

But there is also a gift hidden in this isolation: we find ourselves in that rare moment when it is still possible to see cosmic history from its beginning to the present. This grants us a unique opportunity to uncover the laws governing the evolution of complex systems, including civilizations themselves.

The expansion of the Universe not only pushes galaxies apart – it also sets temporal boundaries for the evolution of intelligence. Civilizations that arise in different cosmological epochs may end up isolated not so much in space as in time: we may well be not alone in space, yet still alone in our particular moment in time.

This shifts our task from searching for “brothers in mind” to searching for the internal laws of stability. The Universe’s silence becomes a mirror reflecting our own maturity: the time granted to us by this unique cosmological window is finite, and how we use it will determine whether we become those who unravel the riddle of existence or merely another point on the extinction curve.

Chapter 3. Sixty years of listening to silence: what does silence tell us?

Imagine shouting into space for 60 years and hearing nothing in return. This does not mean that no one is out there. It means that the silence itself is the most important signal we have received, and it tells us that something in our approach to ourselves and to the world calls for reconsideration.

Scientific efforts and accumulated data

For more than sixty years, humanity has been directing ever more sophisticated instruments toward the cosmos, hoping to catch signs of an alien mind. Modern SETI projects now extend beyond the classic search for radio signals to include optical laser bursts, atmospheric technosignatures, possible megastructures and even speculative quantum channels of communication.

Over this period, an enormous number of observations has been carried out. The Breakthrough Listen project, launched in 2015 with 100 million dollars in funding, uses radio telescopes in West Virginia and Australia to monitor up to a million nearby stars, giving it a survey scope that surpasses all previous SETI programs by orders of magnitude [27].

The 500-meter FAST telescope in China, the first radio telescope built with SETI as one of its primary scientific goals, is currently estimated to be capable of detecting signals out to a distance of about 28 light-years and to cover some 1,400 stars [28].

Yet the results so far have been discouraging. In all the years of searching, not a single universally accepted signal of extraterrestrial origin has been detected, and even the famous 1977 “Wow!” signal has never repeated and remains unresolved.

In 2022, the FAST telescope reported the possible detection of artificial signals, but subsequent analysis showed that they were nothing more than ordinary terrestrial radio interference [29].

As professor Jason Wright of Pennsylvania State University notes, if we imagine the Milky Way as an ocean, then all SETI efforts over the past 60 years are equivalent to sampling the water from something like a small swimming pool or hot tub [5].

According to modern estimates, only a vanishingly small fraction of the relevant parameter space for searching extraterrestrial civilizations has been explored so far [6].

The evolution of the search: from radio to technosignatures

Modern searches for extraterrestrial intelligence have expanded significantly. In 2018, at the request of the U.S. Congress, NASA organized a major workshop on technosignatures – potentially detectable indicators of the presence of advanced civilizations [5].

Scientists are now searching not only for radio signals, but also for:

– anomalous chemical pollutants in exoplanet atmospheres, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs);

– radioactive isotopes like tritium, a byproduct of nuclear fusion;

– thermal anomalies produced by megacities or large-scale industrial activity;

– optical signals in the infrared band;

– signatures of astroengineering structures such as Dyson spheres [5].

The James Webb Space Telescope, launched in 2021, is opening up new possibilities for detecting such technosignatures. According to Jill Tarter, former director of the SETI Research Center, JWST should be able to detect industrial pollutants in the atmospheres of exoplanets, provided they are present at sufficiently high concentrations [5].

A promising new direction is quantum communication. According to a 2024 study, quantum links between stellar systems are theoretically possible, but their practical realization would require telescopes with diameters greater than 100 kilometers – a technological barrier that humanity has not yet overcome [9].

This limitation, by itself, may serve as a plausible explanation for the Fermi paradox, since the requirement of such enormous telescopes would make interstellar quantum communication effectively inaccessible to civilizations at our technological level.

Possible interpretations of the silence of the Universe

The silence of SETI admits several plausible explanations, none of which can yet be ruled out:

1. The rarity hypothesis. Technological civilizations may be an exceedingly rare phenomenon. As Stephen Webb has systematized, there are dozens of distinct proposed solutions to the Fermi paradox [30].

2. The method-mismatch hypothesis. We may simply be searching for the wrong kinds of signals. Advanced civilizations could prefer optical or even quantum communication channels over traditional radio waves, making their transmissions effectively invisible to our current search strategies [5].

3. The time-mismatch hypothesis. The technological epochs of different civilizations may be brief and fail to overlap in time. As astrophysicist David Grinspoon notes, many civilizations may be merely “proto-intelligent,” ultimately self-destructing at early technological stages instead of reaching long-term stability [5].

4. Alternative hypotheses. These range from the “zoo hypothesis” – the idea that advanced civilizations deliberately avoid contact and simply observe us – to proposals about technological transcendence into post-biological or “inner space” forms that leave few or no conventional traces in the observable Universe [13].

The Drake equation and the Great Filter in light of new data

Today, the Drake equation can now be partially filled in with precise estimates. [23].

The discovery of more than six thousand exoplanets has shown that planetary systems are the rule rather than the exception [1].

However, the key factors, especially the parameter L – the average lifetime of a technologically detectable civilization – remain in the realm of deep uncertainty.

The Great Filter concept offers a harsh but productive framework for interpreting the silence. If the universe is full of potentially habitable worlds yet we see no signs of advanced civilizations, then there must be one or more critical barriers on the path from non-living matter to a spacefaring species [13].

Within this line of reasoning, SETI’s silence may serve as indirect evidence that humanity has not yet passed the most serious filter. According to estimates by astrophysicist Sebastian von Hoerner, the average lifetime of a technological civilization may be only 6,500 years [13].

Principle of Osmosis: A Strategic Conclusion from Sixty Years of Silence

The collected evidence leads to a strategic principle that, within Eonatrica, can be called the Principle of Osmosis:

Sustained expansion of a system into a new environment becomes possible only after it has achieved internal balance and deep self-understanding. This is not a scientific law but a worldview-level principle.

For a civilization, this means that our readiness for space should be measured not only in tons of fuel but also by the quality of our social contract, the resilience of our psyche to long-term challenges, and the maturity of our understanding of ourselves as part of the biosphere.

The silence of the universe is not a verdict but the clearest reminder of the need for internal due diligence – thorough preliminary self-assessment – before embarking on the most ambitious project in human history.

A Model of Hypothetical Psychological Transition:

If the universe is silent, maybe the problem is not out there, but in how we listen – and in who we believe ourselves to be?

Chapter 4. Cosmos as Harmony

“Your civilization is deaf,” the cosmos might say to us. Not because it is silent, but because we fail to hear its fundamental tone – Harmony.

From the author: In this chapter, I invite you to deliberately change the lens: to look at humanity and the cosmos through the prism of harmony, resonance, and interconnected networks – not as a substitute for rigorous analysis, but as a supporting language that lets us glimpse the shared principles by which an orchestra, a forest, and a civilization can all operate.

Sixty years of silence from space can be interpreted in many ways. But if we treat this silence not as emptiness but as a pause in a dialogue, it takes on a new meaning: perhaps what matters most is not the radio signal itself, but our ability to tune civilization into a particular “mode of listening” to the Universe.

In the science of complex systems, metaphors of resonance and networks are often used to describe how individual elements assemble into a whole – from neural ensembles to ecosystems and social structures.

As early as Pythagoras, we were invited to see the world as a form of harmony governed by simple yet strict numerical ratios [31].

The same proportions that make musical intervals consonant, he applied to the heavenly bodies and their motions. This is how the idea of musica universalis – the “music of the Universe,” a soundless yet mathematically ordered cosmos – was born [31].

Kepler made this image almost experimental: he calculated the ratios of the planets’ orbital speeds and described them as intervals and harmonies.

In effect, he claimed that the cosmos has its own “score,” one that can be read in numbers [32].

For those of us living on the threshold of the Great Filter, this image contains a straightforward lesson. Either a civilization tunes its systems to this underlying order, or it runs the risk that such deafness will, over time, erode its long-term future as a species.

Inner Musical Cosmos: Mozart as a Model of Tuning

In Mozart, cosmic harmony seems to turn inward, into the human being. His ability to hold entire compositions in his mind, to hear all the voices at once, and then to write out the score rapidly becomes a metaphor for the kind of systemic thinking our fragmented civilization so badly lacks: the capacity to hear not only individual parts, but also the whole in which they are brought into accord with one another.

Modern music theory refers to this as audiation – a highly developed inner hearing [33].

For us, this becomes a model of how a complex system is first assembled inwardly – as something whole, clear, and harmonious – and only then realized in the world in the form of laws, constitutions, or strategies.

Practically, this means that stable social structures must first be calibrated internally – at the level of values and goals – before they can endure in the long term.

Tesla and Engineering Harmony: The Brain as Receiver

Tesla did with technology what Mozart did with music. He first constructed his devices as mental models, building a detailed three-dimensional structure in his mind, “running” it, tracking its vibrations, and only then moving on to a physical prototype [34].

In his own description of the process, there is no fundamental boundary between the laboratory and the inner simulation.

His famous line “My brain is only a receiver” evokes the image of an inner antenna tuned to a deeper layer of reality. In Tesla’s engineering worldview, harmony appears as the resonance of fields and forms [34].

In contemporary terms, this raises a question about the quality of our technological creativity. When a society treats its technologies as if they existed in a vacuum, it risks tuning its machines to the very frequencies of its own disintegration.

The Living World as a Network of Signals: From Forests to Civilizations

Modern research shows that the ability to exchange meaningful information is not a human monopoly. Forests linked by mycorrhizal fungal networks add another level: through the mycelium, trees exchange resources and chemical stress signals, and the network begins to function like a nervous system for the ecosystem [35].

For politics and economics, this implies a radical shift. The global system is also a field of signals, where money and armies are only the visible tip of the iceberg, while the invisible part consists of trust, fear, reputation, and shared collective images of the future [36].

This communication network can either stabilize a civilization or set off chain reactions of panic and escalation. In this way, local manifestations of the Great Filter may take shape.

Inner Antennas and the Great Filter: What Is Required of a Civilization

The Great Filter is not only an astronomical puzzle but also a mirror of our institutions and decisions. If most civilizations “go deaf,” it means that at some point their technologies begin to grow faster than their ability to see the consequences: power outpaces ethics, and the speed of information outpaces the depth of understanding.

In this regime, the inner antennas – attention, empathy, the capacity for honest self-reflection – become overloaded with noise. They lose the ability to distinguish genuine risk signals from background chatter.

For a civilization, this translates into a simple task: to learn to look both inward and outward at the same time. It must cultivate inner listening and design its technologies so that they do not drown out these capacities, but amplify them instead.

Plato, Harmony, and a Civilization’s Choice

Plato spoke of harmony as a form of concord, a state of inner and outer agreement rather than mere absence of conflict [37].

From Plato’s logic follows a hard demand: you cannot “tune” to harmony something whose very architecture is built as a war of parts.

When reason systematically suppresses emotion, elites suppress society, and economies suppress ecological limits, this is not a conflict that can be reconciled but a structural dissonance; amplified by technological “antennas,” such arrangements start generating ever-growing noise and instability.

In this sense, the perspective of “Eonatrics” you propose extends and radicalizes the Platonic motif: a civilization that does not seek greater alignment with its own “soul” and the living world reinforces the very mechanisms that make it a candidate for elimination by the Great Filter.

The thesis about institutional frequencies thus gains a rigorous content: institutions can be designed so that their normal mode of operation increases the likelihood of major crises (through false incentives, underestimated complexity, and amplified externalities), instead of damping systemic risks.

And so the thesis about institutional frequencies acquires a precise, substantive meaning: institutions can be designed in such a way that their normal mode of operation increases the likelihood of major crises (through false incentives, underestimation of complexity, and the amplification of externalities) instead of damping systemic risks.

Our choice in the twenty-first century can be formulated in almost technical terms. Either we consciously tune our inner antennas, or we remain deaf in a cosmos that has always been speaking to us – through the music of the spheres, forest networks, the crises of our markets, and the faint signals of our own conscience.

It is to a detailed analysis of this choice – between tuning and deafness – that we now turn in the next part.

Part II. The Great Filter: Humanity at a Crossroads

What is more terrifying: to remain alone forever, or to be heard? Before we shout “We are here!”, we must decide who this “we” is. Our earthly quarrels are children’s squabbles on the threshold of a stellar council. The protocol for a first encounter does not begin with broadcasting our coordinates, but with an attempt to write a shared story of our species that we would not be ashamed to present.

Chapter 5. Are the Odds Stacked Against Us?

Statistics suggest that the chances of survival for a civilization like ours are close to zero. But what if these numbers are not a sentence, but an instruction for how to be saved?

The previous chapters have left us in a strange position. On the one hand, the Universe is full of stars and planets. We have reasonable estimates of how many worlds with suitable conditions there might be in our galaxy. We have sixty years of searching for signals. On the other hand, we still do not see a single civilization that has reached the level of a “cosmic neighbor.”

This asymmetry – between the enormous number of chances and the almost zero number of visible results – is the entry point to the idea that Robin Hanson called the Great Filter.

What Is the Great Filter: From Statistics to Mechanism

The Great Filter is not a single solid wall in one place. It is a chain of stages, each so difficult that most evolutionary lines break off at that point.

In compressed form, Hanson’s formulation is this: if intelligent, long-term cosmic expansion is possible at all, and the Universe has had many “attempts” to launch it, yet we do not see a single other advanced civilization, then for any piece of dead matter the chance of traversing the full path from “stone” to “deep space” is astronomically small [12].

Somewhere between atoms, first cells, complex life, intelligence, and a civilization capable of reliably spreading through the galaxy, there is a hidden sequence of steps that almost no one manages to complete.

The main question of this chapter is therefore: “How far along this Filter have we already come – and how many deadly segments still lie ahead? And more importantly – what drives these ‘deadly segments’: external circumstances, or something encoded in ourselves?”

A Ladder of Improbabilities

Let us try to break down the path from a “dead planet” to a “galactic civilization” into several key rungs.

1. A suitable planet with conditions for complex chemistry and a stable environment.

2. The emergence of the simplest forms of life.

3. The appearance of complex cells (eukaryotes).

4. The formation of complex multicellular life.

5. The rise of intelligent beings capable of building a civilization and a complex culture.

6. The emergence of a technological civilization that is detectable from space.

7. The transition to a stable, long-term civilization capable of not destroying itself with its own technologies and conflicts (reprogramming the “pack logic” toward planetary responsibility).

8. Cosmic synthesis – aligning the development of civilization with the broader laws of the Universe, moving from colonization to creative co-creation.

The fact that we do not see clear traces of steps 7—8 means that either almost no one reaches them, or those who do act in a fundamentally different way.

Two Possibilities: Is the Filter Behind Us or Ahead?

The idea of the Great Filter turns the question “Are we alone?” into a sharper one: “Where exactly is its densest part – behind us, or still ahead of us?”

First possibility: the Great Filter lies behind us. In this case, the emergence of life, the transition to complex cells, or the appearance of intelligence are exceptionally rare events. We have already passed the most dangerous stretch. The silence is not a threat, but a confirmation of our uniqueness. This is an optimistic, but passive, scenario.

Second possibility: the Great Filter lies ahead of us. Here, the early steps occur relatively often, but almost all civilizations crash against the phase of their own technologies and conflicts. The silence means not “we are unique,” but “almost no one has survived long enough to become noticeable, and the reason lies within themselves.” This is a pessimistic, but mobilizing, scenario: the toughest exam – the exam in self-restraint – has not yet begun.

Where Might the Main Filter Be Hiding? A New Hypothesis

A growing body of data leads some researchers to treat the second possibility as the more likely one: planets are common, and life, judging by its early appearance on Earth, may not be especially rare.

If we accept these assumptions, then the Great Filter shifts much closer to us – toward stages 6 and 7.

What makes these stages so deadly? The answer proposed in this book lies not in astrophysics, but in biology and psychology.

The Filter may be the inner conflict of a species that has attained technological power but has not outgrown its evolutionary inheritance. This is the conflict between an ancient pattern – what we will call here the “pack logic,” a set of instincts optimized for the survival of a small group through competition, hierarchy, and division into “us” and “them” – and the new demands of planetary-scale cooperation, long-term planning, and global responsibility.